Tonight's game could look like the Pistons/Bulls playoff series from back in the day with Laimbeer and Jordan. A rock fight. Both teams are fighting to not go down 1-2 in this series because that can quickly become 1-3. Defense is how these two will go about it and that's why I like Jimmy Butler to clean glass tonight. His effort is incredible and he's never afraid to do the blue collar work plus he knows every rebound matters in this series. Look for Butler to flex his muscle and own the boards tonight.

Without Tyler Herro the defensive gameplan for Milwaukee will further increase to forcing someone other than Jimmy Butler to do the heavy lifting. Don't get me wrong Butler will get his points but Miami will also use him to get Strus and Adebayo open. Kick outs and quick dishes are the name of the game tonight, because the best way to help a star player is to, well help the star player. Score. The more you do, the more open Butler gets down the stretch. When Butler kicks you the rock knock it down. Force the defense to space and then let Jimmy do his thing.

The theme of riding a role player continues Saturday with Miami Heat guard Gabe Vincent. Vincent is not going to get high minutes, but he is one that looks for his shot as soon as he checks in. With Tyler Herro (hand) out, look for Vincent to hit his Over points prop for the third postseason game in a row. Play his Over.

Someone has to help take some of the scoring pressure off Jimmy Butler with Tyler Herro (hand) out. Vincent did that in Game 2, scoring 16 points on 6-for-12 shooting from the field. What’s even more impressive is that he did that in just 21 minutes because of the lopsided score. With added shot attempts coming his way again in Game 3, I’m riding the over.

This is a huge number, even for "Playoff Jimmy." Butler has certainly done his part and is averaging a combined 41 PRA through two games, while shooting a blistering 59% from the field. It is unlikely Butler will be able to sustain that level of efficiency considering he is a career 46% shooter in the playoffs. Miami and Milwaukee were two of the better defensive teams in the NBA this season but you wouldn't be able to tell through two games. I think this game is paced down and low scoring.

Obviously, this could swing if Giannis plays or not, although this spread tells me the books think he will. The Freak was able to do some individual work before Friday's practice but apparently isn't cleared for contact. Doesn't sound too promising. Miami was 2-0 vs. Milwaukee this year in south Florida and Giannis missed both. I think the Heat can stay close even if he does play -- and back injuries can flare up at any time. If I'm Heat coach Erik Spoelstra, I'm not flat-out telling my players to foul Giannis in his back often because that would draw an incredible NBA punishment ... but