The Heat are just three games above .500, and, as a veteran team, they need to begin to raise their level of play. Monday's game should be a golden opportunity against the Utah Jazz. Miami has had a home friendly schedule, with six of its past seven games at home. There lone road game was in Orlando, so the Heat have not left the state since Feb. 27. Play the Heat.

This is suddenly a sizable number for Bam Adebayo who is averaging 17.9 PPG to go along with 6.3 rebounds over his last 10 games which happen to coincide with Kevin Love joining the team. Bam has eclipsed this line just one time over that 10 game sample. Meanwhile Utah has been very stingy against opposing Center's surrendered the fewest points to the position over the last 15 games. This is a good spot to fade the Miami big man.

Butler has elevated his game in March, having scored 26 or more points in five of Miami's seven games this month. It also helps that his minutes have been heavy considering Miami hasn't won a game by double-digits since January 18th. I'll be on Early Edge in 5 at 4 p.m. ET to explain this pick further...

The Jazz score the sixth-most points in the NBA -- and allow the ninth-most. That should help wake up a sluggish Miami offense, and push this game to the Over. My model projects a final score of 118-115 in the Heat's favor, good for a total of 233 that's well beyond this number. The Over is hitting in 68% of my simulations, providing good value here.

Talen Horton-Tucker is coming off a monster 37 point performance against the Hornets on Saturday. He has strung together three consecutive 20 point games but will face an excellent Miami defense that have surrendered the second fewest points to opposing back courts this season. The Heat give up the fewest points in the paint in the NBA, are fifth in Defensive Rating, and play at the second slowest pace. The guards that tend to have success against Miami are able to exploit their subpar three point defense. THT is a career 27% three point shooter and scores the majority of his points inside the arc.