Awfully low number, but the clubs just combined for 204 points on Wednesday in south Florida and now red-hot Darius Garland is questionable for the Cavs. He had 25 points and seven assists there. If he's ruled out, I may come back and play the Heat moneyline but I'm frankly afraid to do that now because I've been burned a few times by Miami ruling out Jimmy Butler rather late -- and the Heat do play again Saturday. If the Heat rule out a good player here, all the better for this total in theory.

I wanted to get this play out because this line is moving. I will have a breakdown on this pick when my article comes out this afternoon and will update this blurb at that time as well.

My model projects a final score of 113-112 in Cleveland's favor, ten points clear of the line. Despite Wednesday's final total of 204, my model has the Over hitting in 68% of simulations, which provides excellent value at this price. Expect more offense in the rematch.