The Phoenix Suns defense, ranked 5th in the league, is only allowing 104.3 points per game. While Golden State's offense is 1st in the league in points, 125.3, per game. However, this game is similar to last night's Pacers/Sixers game. For the Suns to win, they need to control the pace, like the Sixers did, they controlled the game and did not allow the Pacers to play up-tempo. The Suns rank 27th in pace of play at 95.7. Over their last three games, all at home, the Warriors are allowing 120.7 points per game, 6th worst in the league, currently. Golden State has not played a defense this good in their first three game and their main players are still playing limited minutes. Last season, when an underdog on the road, the Warriors went 10-11 ATS. I'm on the Suns.

As good as the Warriors were last season, they were only 22-19 on the road, compared to 31-10 at home. This will mark their first road game of this season, and it’s a tough opponent in the Suns. Devin Booker is rolling with an average of 32.0 points over the Suns’ first three games, and Chris Paul has dished out at least 11 assists in back-to-back games. The Warriors have been limiting Klay Thompson’s minutes out of the gate, so with the expectation that he won’t be a full go again in this game, look for the Suns to earn the win.

It's the first road game of the season for the Warriors and that matters a little. Their defense has been terrible in the past two, allowing 128 points to Denver and 125 to Sacramento. The Suns rank fourth in defensive rating -- they have won 52 consecutive games when holding their opponent to fewer than 110 points -- and I certainly think this will be a little personal as Phoenix was geared up to face (with home-court advantage) the Dubs in the 2022 West Finals ... but Dallas had something to say about that.