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Thu 05/12 | 11:00 PM UTC | Philadelphia
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Miami Heat 64-35, 56-43 ATS
MIA +2.5-110
MIA +120
Over 206-110
Philadelphia 76ers 57-36, 43-48 ATS
PHI -2.5-110
PHI -140
Under 206-110

Expert Picks

Miami 99 @ Philadelphia 90 | 05/12 | 11:00 PM UTC

Philadelphia -134

LOSS

ANALYSIS: I love how people are piling on the Miami bandwagon now just like they were the Philly bandwagon after the Sixers dominated Games 3-4 at home. No Kyle Lowry again for the Heat. I said that didn't much matter in Game 5, but I also don't think the likes of Gabe Vincent and Max Strus -- think I had jean shorts (yes, I wore them; don't hate) in the 90s called Vincent & Strus -- are going to play nearly as well on the road as they did in Game 5. On the flip side, Tin Man James Harden (no heart) generally has played much better at home. Have to have a great reason to pick a road team in any playoff game, and I don't see it here. If this were, say, at Sixers -4 I'd probably take Miami ATS. Agree/disagree? Twitter: @jordanpaytonsn1

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+2847 93-39 IN LAST 132 NBA ML PICKS
+562 18-8 IN LAST 26 MIA ML PICKS
+655 21-8 IN LAST 29 PHI ML PICKS

Season Splits

64-35, 56-43 ATS
57-36, 43-48 ATS
All Games
ALL
All Games
56%
52-40
43-48-2
47%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
57%
26-19
21-25
45%
As Underdog or PK
STATUS
As Favorite
69%
18-8
30-34-1
46%
When Spread was +1 to +3.5
SPREAD
When Spread was -3.5 to -1
58%
7-5
12-9
57%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
66%
14-7
17-20
45%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
62%
22-13
20-25-1
44%
vs Teams Allowing >102 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >102 PPG
55%
49-39
38-45-2
45%
After a Day Off
REST
After a Day Off
59%
46-32
38-42-2
47%
vs PHI
HEAD TO HEAD
vs MIA
55%
5-4
4-5
44%