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Fri 07/09 | 1:00 AM UTC | Phoenix
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Milwaukee Bucks 58-32, 41-47 ATS
MIL +4.5
MIL +170
Over 221
Phoenix Suns 64-25, 55-34 ATS
PHO -4.5
PHO -190
Under 221

Expert Picks

Milwaukee 108 @ Phoenix 118 | 07/09 | 1:00 AM UTC

Phoenix -190

WIN

ANALYSIS: It seems generally agreed upon that the Bucks will severely limit the minutes of Brook Lopez because he was getting torched defensively in Game 1. That's fine. But that would also make a very thin team that much thinner. And what about the three-point shooting Lopez provides? Frankly, I'm also not that confident in any changes Coach Mike Budenholzer would make because he has been outcoached the past two postseasons in series losses. Plus, Jrue Holiday only seems to play well when Giannis is out. The Suns are down reserve Dario Saric (see news feed), but he hadn't done much in these playoffs.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+1332 86-45 IN LAST 131 NBA ML PICKS
+553 14-6 IN LAST 20 PHO ML PICKS
+517 13-5 IN LAST 18 MIL ML PICKS

Season Splits

58-32, 41-47 ATS
64-25, 55-34 ATS
All Games
ALL
All Games
46%
41-47-2
55-34
61%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
40%
18-26-2
29-16
64%
As Underdog or PK
STATUS
As Favorite
30%
3-7
42-28
60%
When Spread was +3 to +6
SPREAD
When Spread was -6 to -3
33%
1-2
17-7
70%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
28%
2-5
27-13
67%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
50%
19-19
31-11
73%
vs Teams Allowing >102 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >102 PPG
46%
40-46-2
53-33
61%
After a Day Off
REST
After a Day Off
48%
36-38-2
45-27
62%
vs PHO
HEAD TO HEAD
vs MIL
0%
0-3
3-0
100%