This spread has just popped up to 8 at William Hill Sportsbook, so let's take it now as I doubt it gets higher. Atlanta is listing both Bogdan Bogdanovic and Cam Reddish as questionable. Bogdan had the same listing Sunday in Game 7 vs. Philly and played. I'm sure he will here. Reddish has been out since late February but has been medically cleared and practicing. I'd guess he plays too -- albeit obviously quite limited minutes. I'm with Mike Barner as I expect the Bucks to win, but this spread feels a handful of points too high. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its past five on the road.

Both teams are coming off grueling seven-game series. Atlanta pulled off an upset over Philadelphia, while Millwaukee took advantage of Brooklyn's injury problems to advance. The Bucks clearly are the better of the two teams, and the Hawks are dealing with a key injury to Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee), who is listed as a game-time decision for Game 1. Still, this is a big line for a Hawks team that showed plenty of fight in the previous round. I think the Bucks win, but I’ll still take the points.

Game 1 of an unlikely Eastern Conference Finals matchup with a huge total. Too big according to my model as more than 70 percent of simulations land Under 226 points -- way Under. The Under is 4-1 in the past five meetings.