This has a Phoenix letdown written all over it. Deandre Ayton vs. Nikola Jokic will be the matchup to watch, but I still give the major edge to the Nuggets.

The Suns provided one of the craziest series swings in terms of odds in recent memory. Toppling the Los Angeles Lakers was quite a feat, but now they’ll need to defeat a Nuggets team with which they've had issues. Denver posted two overtime wins at Phoenix during the regular season and swept the Suns in the playoffs last year. Grab the Nuggets as they continue to thrive while undermanned in an underdog role.

Both teams are on equal rest, but that extra couple of days should work wonders for the shoulder problem of Chris Paul. The Nuggets won the regular-season series 2-1 but both wins were in OT and Denver had Jamal Murray then. He averaged 25.0 points in the series but of course is now out for the year. There was hope on the Nugs' side that Will Barton would return from injury tonight, but he will not. Thus, Phoenix's backcourt advantage is substantial and should be the difference.

The Nuggets managed to advance past the first round despite not having Jamal Murray (knee). It helped that they were playing a Trail Blazers squad that was among the worst defensive teams in the league. The same can’t be said for the Suns, who also have their own injury issues with Chris Paul (shoulder). The good news is that Paul has had some added time off for rest and Devin Booker is locked in offensively, so look for the Suns to take care of business at home, and cover along the way.

The Nuggets have done well to overcome the losses of key players, such as Jamal Murray, to injury, but I think the injuries catch up to Denver on Sunday. The Suns have the NBA's sixth best defense and are riding high after dispatching the defending champion Lakers. My model says Phoenix covers 65 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value at this number.