The Pacers have burned me probably more than any team this season, so I'm not sure why I even go back to their games but here we are. Indiana is much worse at home than on the road, on the second of a back-to-back and without Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis. San Antonio is much better on the road than at home, not on a B2B and healthy. The Spurs are 12-1 when shooting over 50 percent from the field, which includes an 8-0 mark on the road. No Turner patrolling the paint might allow a 50 percent night.

The Spurs are coming off a Gregg Popovich special in which their already-thin and injury-depleted roster thumped the surging Phoenix Suns by 26 points on the road. It's also telling that the Spurs and Pacers have nearly identical records. Indiana has battled the injury bug as well but still has a significant edge in roster talent. The Pacers lost to former coach Nate McMillan and the Hawks on Sunday in what was a blowout most of the way. This isn't necessarily the greatest spot, but the value is on Indiana against an overachieving San Antonio club that could see a letdown.

Over the weekend, the San Antonio Spurs had one of the biggest upsets based on point-spread movement. A 3.5-point line move against the Spurs was incorrect, as they trounced the Phoenix Suns. This has created value Monday for the Pacers, who defeated the Spurs 139-133 earlier this month. Take the Pacers to sweep the season series.

These two teams both have been better on the road than at home this season. The Pacers are just 9-16 at home, compared to 17-14 on the road. Meanwhile, the Spurs are 15-10 as visitors and just 12-18 on their own court. Add in the fact Indiana will be playing the second game of a back-to-back set, and I think San Antonio pulls out the win on Monday.