The Indiana defense is eighth in Points Per Possession Allowed over the last 40 days. The offense has been 16th during that span, playing at a slightly below average pace. Indiana is 5-3 under in its last eight games. Boston is 25th in pace over the last 40 days. During that span, the offense ranks 17th and the defense ranks 15th in points per possession. The Celtics have gone over in 13 of 14 February games, but those numbers have been skewed against up tempo opponents.

The Celtics need a win here in the worst way. They enter having lost three straight, although it should be noted that all three losses came on the road. They are 7-12 on the road, but they are 8-5 at home, including 7-3 ATS as a home favorite. Look for them to bounce back with a win, and cover along the way.

Two very disappointing teams here -- Boston is below .500 and Indiana would fall a game below with a loss. It's also the front end of a B2B for the Pacers. While the teams split two games in Indianapolis back in December, the Celtics have won 10 of the past 14 in the series and will have Kemba Walker back after he rested Wednesday in an ugly loss in Atlanta to conclude a winless three-game road trip. Indiana is 0-4 ATS in its past four as a dog and Boston is 8-3 ATS in its past 11 at home -- for those who want to take the Celtics at -3. Myself, I prefer the moneyline these days on home favorites between 3-6 points or so to avoid any last-second bad beat.