The Heat easily dispatched the Pacers in what many observers expected to be a tight first-round matchup. But they proved to have superior weapons and the closing acumen of Jimmy Butler made a big difference. Miami matched up well with Milwaukee in the regular season and the Heat are a trendy pick to pull an upset in this series. But the Bucks finally broke out of their bubble slump after a Game 1 loss to Orlando and should be eager to make a statement against a well-rested Miami club that could be in for a letdown following a long break.

Miami won two of its three regular-season meetings with Milwaukee. In the first round of the playoffs, the Heat were the only team to sweep their series. This resulted in a full seven days of rest that could be detrimental in Game 1. Expect the Bucks to be the more fluid team and fight off the number ATS in the fourth quarter.

Milwaukee closed out Orlando just two days ago, winning the series 4-1.. Miami swept Indiana and has not played for a week. Miami beat Milwaukee twice before the games went on hiatus, but in the bubble the Bucks won 130-116. I have Milwaukee eight points better in my power ratings. The Bucks will use their wake-up call from their Game 1 upset loss to the Magic for motivation Monday in the Game 1 opener.

After losing four of the final five games on their schedule, the Heat flipped the switch and swept Indiana in their first-round playoff series. They'll face a much tougher challenge against a top-seeded Bucks team that won four straight versus Orlando after losing their series opener by a dozen points. Two of those victories were by 15 points and the other two were by 14. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 28 or more in each of the five games against the Magic and will continue the streak on Monday.

Jimmy Butler and the Heat love playing the underdog role, so this is going to be a fun series. Butler seems to be over the shoulder issue that plagued him in Game 4 against the Pacers, while Eric Bledsoe (hamstring) is listed as questionable for the Bucks. Even if Bledsoe plays, I like the Heat to play the Bucks tough and keep this a close contest. I wouldn't be surprised if Miami won outright, so I'll at least take the points.