Past Picks
Pretty fair number at Draw No Bet for New England at home as the Revs have climbed to second in league standings in the Eastern Conference table, and are riding a three-game win streak overall. The Revs have just three home losses in 15 matches and it's the penultimate home game of the regular season. Red Bull NY might be a bit flat off upsetting Inter Miami last time out. It also beat New England, 1-0, back in February but sits ninth in the table. New York has five away wins in 15 tries with a minus-10 goal differential.
Inter Miami should extend their winning streak to four games when they take on New York Red Bulls this weekend. The Herons have moved up to second in the Eastern Conference table after beating DC United 4-0, New York City FC 2-0, and Atlanta United 3-1. Lionel Messi has scored four goals in his last three games, and he could tear RBNY’s defense apart. The Red Bulls are coming off back-to-back defeats against DC United and Toronto. They’ve lost seven out of 15 home games this season, conceding 29 goals in the process. Inter Miami have the best away record in Major League Soccer – nine wins, three draws, and only three defeats from 15 games on the road.
FC Cincinnati currently holds the last playoff spot in MLS' Eastern Conference so it can't afford a loss to a team four spots below -- especially as DC is missing second-leading scorer Louis Munteanu (6G, 3A). It has just two wins in its past seven overall. FC Cincinnati has already set a franchise record for goals scored in all competitions in a single season (83) with a handful of matches TK. Forward Kévin Denkey has scored six goals in his last five appearances and leads the club with 21 in all competitions.
New York FC is winless in three and remains a bit short in the midfield due to injury. It has totaled just three goals in that span and sits 16 points lower in the Eastern Conference table than Leo Messi and Inter Miami, so this ML seems moderately reasonable. DNB is definitely too expensive. Messi's club leads the MLS in goals with 68 and he does individually with 23. A win clinches a playoff spot apparently. Inter won 3-2 at Yankee Stadium in March -- Messi had a goal -- and is unbeaten in the past seven (3W) in the series. I'd imagine only a draw beats us; Inter Miami is unbeaten in its past six at home in all competitions.
I know that were all exhausted by the longest International Break of the decade, however, that doesn't mean we can't still find some juicy wagers in MLS action. We're going to take advantage of the fact that Chicago Fire is missing their best goal-scorer to the break, while Vancouver is locked and loaded with their best starting 11. Robert Lewandowski had to travel back early from overseas and isn't expected to play a full 90 minutes for Chicago. Chicago is toothless in attack without him fit and healthy. I like Vancouver TT, but with that being -155, I'd MUCH rather take the ML for the better team, with the better starters, even when they're playing on the road.
I hate betting unders we all know this. I will look for any opportunity to smash an over and a BTTS whenever I can. With that being said, this line should be 2.5 goals, and I would still be the under. Chicago Fire with a tired and traveling Robert Lewandowski are just not playing attacking football. Right now Chicago are playing for low scoring and cagey battles. Chicago has only covered this over in one of their last 12 matches while Vancouver have in two of their last eight. I expect Vancouver to win in a low-scoring 2-0 type of victory.
Both sides are missing some guys due to international duty. Chicago has had four straight matches land Under four total goals scored, while West-leading Vancouver has had four straight roadies land Under that number. Only East-leading Nashville has given up fewer total goals than the Whitecaps this season. Two older European legends facing off in Thomas Muller and Robert Lewandowski.
I am so thankful I found and became fluent in ChatGPT at least when it comes to player availability in soccer. I do go back and double-check everything to make sure so in reality it's taking me twice as long to make plays, but I want to be right. The Fire have a ton of guys out either for injury or international duty reasons -- there are a lot of guys league-wide out for that latter reason tonight. The big one missing for the Fire is Robert Lewandowski as Poland recalled him for national duty. He's third on the team with six goals despite only 11 games played. Charlotte isn't full strength, either, but doesn't appear nearly in as bad of shape.
San Diego's players could be low on confidence after they lost 5-0 at home to Philadelphia Union last weekend. Their now ninth in the Western Conference, and their away record is poor - six defeats from 11 games on the road. Inter Miami beat Cruz Azul 2-0 in the Campeones Cup final on Wednesday, and the Herons are on a five-game unbeaten streak. Lionel Messi is still in fine form, so they should have too much firepower for San Diego to handle.
Nashville's home record is superb this season. They Boys and Gold have picked up 11 wins and a draw from 12 games at Geodis Park, which is why they're so far ahead of their rivals in the race for the Supporters' Shield. Chicago Fire's away record is also solid, but they're currently on a six-game winless streak, and they're also coming off a 2-1 defeat to New England.
The teams are adjacent in the Western Conference standings, but the injury report favors L.A. as the Sounders have a handful of guys out or iffy led by Jesús Ferreira and Kalani Kossa-Rienzi. One of the notable MLS results of the season was May 16 when L.A. won 2-0 in Seattle to snap the Sounders' 22-match home unbeaten streak. It was the Galaxy's first win up there since July 2016. Player news is pretty much all good for Los Angeles led by the return from injury of Designated Player forward João Klauss. He's tied for the team lead with five goals despite not having played since April. Seems a really fair DNB number at least in regard to MLS prices often being kinda wonky.
It's not often you get Inter Miami at home with plus-money odds. Sure, Nashville SC sits atop the league right now, but they're coming off a 2-1 defeat at Toronto and will now face an Inter Miami side desperate to close the gap in the Eastern Conference standings. Lionel Messi and Co. have scored nine goals in their past two games at home, and I expect Messi to lead his side to victory in this one.
I looked at DNB for Houston yesterday and couldn't justify it priced around -250. But now this ... and love it so much I'm going fairly big because I believe the home side draws at worst. The Dynamo are eight spots higher and 11 points better in the West, so feel free to take the -110 ML but I like insurance. RSL has some major player availability concerns (led by Morgan Guilavogu) with a single road win. Houston has just two losses in 11 at home and has kept 11 clean sheets overall. This smells fishy, but I don't pretend to be a Wile E. Coyote MLS super-genius -- highly recommend the Coyote vs. Acme movie if you grew up watching as I did.
Tonight marks the ninth straight non-true home game in all competitions for FC Dallas. That has to be draining, and it seemed to show last time out in a 5-0 loss in Vancouver. St. Louis City FC, meanwhile, is beaten in 12 straight in all competitions (club record) and has set an MLS record with an 11-match unbeaten regular-season run. The sides drew 1-1 in April. City SC is unbeaten in four (two draws) at home in all competitions vs. Dallas. And it's Harry Potter Night at Energizer Park! I really can't segue to that cleverly having never seen or read a second of HP.
Today years old when I found out this is called the Rocky Mountain Clash. Sounds like monster trucks and mud to me but whatever. So how I bet soccer isn't rocket science. I skim all the leagues to see a decent home DNB price first and then go investigate. Certainly don't always play them, and some prices I think are just wrong. Which brings me here in MLS. Some of our books have this DNB in the -250 range, so that piqued my interest getting this "value" number even if high. The visitors have quite the laundry list of guys either out or questionable, although I won't say any of them are stars. The Rapids are 10-2-0 at home with seven clean sheets.