Past Picks
Faded New York FC on Wednesday because the side was ravaged by injury, and it lost 2-1 in Cincinnati -- a fourth straight defeat in all competitions. All those guys are out again led by Hannes Wolf and Maxi Moralez. The Revs have one of the best home records in the league at 8-2-1 and have scored 21 of their 32 total goals in Foxborough. Jack Harrison was recently acquired from Leeds United and has four assists in three games.
Nashville SC has the best home record in Major League Soccer this season: nine wins, one draw, and zero defeats from 10 games. The Boys in Gold have scored 29 goals and conceded just 10 times at Geodis Park. They should be full of confidence after thumping Inter Miami 4-1 last weekend, before securing a midweek away win against New York Red Bulls. Columbus Crew have only won once in 10 away games this season, which doesn’t bode well for their chances of getting a result against Nashville.
Played FC Cincinnati in its last game because it was home and healthy, while the visitors had a ton of guys listed out. That worked out well Wednesday with the Fighting Skyline Chilis beating NYFC, 2-1, to improve to 11-3-1 at home in all competitions and on a four-game winning streak there. Same situation here really. Seattle, near the bottom of the Western Conference, has a laundry list of guys ruled out and has lost eight straight in MLS action. It's the first time the Sounders have left the West Coast in weeks.
Teams are separated by a point in the Eastern Conference table but while FC Cincinnati isn't listing a single player on the availability report tonight, New York FC has eight guys out led by second-leading goalscorer Hannes "Teen" Wolf (5G, 2A), leading assister Maxi Moralez (6A, 1G) and top defender Thiago Martins. At least that's what ChatGPT told me; obviously I went and double-checked when it mentioned Pele, so it actually took more time. FC Cincinnati is 10-3-1 at home in all competitions this season and won the past three there in MLS action. These teams drew 4-4 in late April. Those three NY guys I mentioned all played.
Chicago is fourth in the East with 29 points and has a plus-9 goal differential while Portland is 10th in the West with 24 points and is even on differential. It's Portland's first visit to the Windy City in eight years and marks the MLS debut of new Portland head coach Martí Cifuentes. Second-leading scorer and top assister Kristoffer Velde (4G, 6A) is in doubt after leaving a Leagues Cup this week injured. The Timbers are 2-6-1 in road games. Led by new addition and European superstar Robert Lewandowski (2G in three games), Chicago is on a four-game winning streak in all competitions.
Real Salt Lake have been superb at home this season. They've won seven of their eight MLS games at America First Field, and they beat Juarez 3-0 at home in the Leagues Cup in midweek. Minnesota United are a strong team, but they've struggled on the road this season. They've lost four of their nine away MLS games, and they haven't won on the road since early May.
I like the over in this match. Orlando City has one of the worst defenses in MLS statistically, but the attack has been much better, especially as the group gets healthier. Adding Antoine Griezmann only makes this attack more dangerous and fluid. I think Orlando concedes multiple goals here, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if they scored two or three themselves. Cincinnati can score with anybody, but they’ve also been one of the better over teams in MLS because they give up plenty of chances. Their xG and xGA both point toward an open match. For me, there’s only one way to play this one: goals, goals, goals.
Both teams enter this matchup riding high, in good form, and with their goal-scoring boots strapped and loaded. The big differnece in this matchup is going to be home-field advantage. Gillette Stadium has been a fortress for NE Revolution this stadium, as they've only lost a single match over their 10 matches at home this season. Carles Gil and Dor Turgeman have led the charge for the Revs, and this is the kind of match you can't ignore the home form. It'll be close, but DNB shouldn't be playable here.
With my limited knowledge of MLS -- now that we have it, I dive in and sponge knowledge like I did in Europe a few years ago; I enjoy betting/learning new sports with cricket as my White Whale -- this seems a fair price Saturday. The Revs are unbeaten out of the World Cup break. Matt Turner is their keeper, and he was the backup for Team USA at the WC. Turner has among the highest save rates in the MLS (77.7%). New England has one regulation home loss with a +13 goal differential in Foxborough and is 7-2-1 in the past 10 meetings in this series overall. Houston has three road wins this year in eight tries and is -4 in goal differential away.
This promises to be an entertaining game between two in-form teams. The Revs have won eight of their 10 home matches this season, and their games at Gillette Stadium have averaged 2.9 goals. Houston is unbeaten since the MLS season resumed last month, and the players should be full of confidence after beating Sporting KC 2-0 on the road last weekend. Their away games have averaged 3.75 goals this season, so this should be a high-scoring contest. Over 2.5 goals has paid off in their last six meetings, so it looks like a great option here.