The lineup confirmed by the Reds for tonight will feature Tyler Stephenson and Matt McLain, which is big for us on the strikeout front. Paul Skenes is now presented with a lineup that has six hitters with a strikeout rate at 26% or worse, and there will be six righties in there too. That's the better side of the platoon for Skenes' strikeouts, although he's been good against both sides, and the Pirates bullpen could use some length after being worked for 100+ pitches yesterday, as both long men were burned the last couple days. Skenes has 7+ strikeouts in three straight, punching out 11 last time as he finally had some of his best strikeout stuff all year, so I'm betting on that continuing.

We’re getting an excellent price point here as Hunter Greene is facing what has not only been the top lineup over the last 30 days (tied with LAD for wOBA) but an extremely potent lineup all season where they rank 2nd. Greene has been shaky from the mound and with prop at plus money, this is shaping up as an excellent fade in my opinion.

Hunter Greene was cruising in his last start when five hits and two walks in the 6th inning knocked him out. He had just three strikeouts against the Cardinals up to that point, but St Louis has been bottom-five in strikeouts against right handers for a while. Greene gets a bounce back spot at home, against a Pirates team leading MLB in strikeout rate vs. righties over the last few weeks around 30%. He's been better for strikeouts against lefties and he will likely see five or six of them, with two of the righties in this lineup possessing K rates above 30%. Coming off a lower pitch count in what might be his final start in Cincy, I'm taking the ladder at 8,9,10 Ks.

I don't have a super-strong opinion on this -- half unit -- but Paul Skenes vs. Hunter Greene. That has my attention, so I will probably watch some of this. Shoot, 12 months ago this was the NL Central if not entire NL pitching matchup to watch going forward. Now they are both eating Jacob Misiorowski's dust. So much can change in a year. Greene has an excuse, he's back from injury. This is why I don't believe you can count on pitchers. Hope but not count on. Theo Epstein nailed it with the 2016 Cubs. Get the bats, figure out the rest later. Arms fail as the Cubs are well aware of in 2026-- the law firm of Horton, Steele & Brown sadly.