I think we may see this come down to 4.5 after the lineup is confirmed, that's if we get anything similar to what is projected. Right now we have seven lefties and just two righties in the projected lineup for the Marlins, and the two righties are K adverse hitters, with Lopez at sub-15% and Sanoja at sub-8% strikeout rates. The Miami lefties will yield some strikeouts, but Kirby has not struck out lefties at a high clip this year, with a 20% whiff rate and under 20% K rate. I don't mind taking the extra strikeout and fading a 6th, but I think he may have a low K day, so under 4.5 at good plus odds is more appealing if you find it.

FanDuel. George Kirby is under this line in 10/17 starts, including 5/7 on the road, where he’s historically seen a dip in his strikeout rate. However, against teams who have a below average strikeout rate against righties, Kirby is under this line in all seven outings. The Marlins, at 20.7%, have the sixth lowest strikeout rate against right-handers, and have been even better over the last month (18.9%). On top of that, Miami’s bats are hot with an .861 OPS and 134 wRC+ in that span. Kirby ditched the lower arm angle that he used last year and resulted in a spike in his strikeout rate, for a more ground-ball inducing approach. Look for the Marlins to avoid strikeouts tonight.

Seattle's George Kirby is a fine pitcher and might throw six strong ... and the game is still tied. Kirby generally speaking has been worse away from Seattle if not so much this year. I basically make this game a pick'em on the side so feel this is fairly generous just on Kirby himself to get a W. It's not like he plays on the Dodgers. Kirby has failed to win eight of his past 11.