Max Meyer took his first loss of the season his last start against Colorado. Miami also is returning from a three series West Coast road trip of ten games, their longest of the season. Look for Dominic Canzone to show off his bat in this one. He has homered in six out of the last seven series for the Mariners. He at least clears his combination line tonight, with a sprinkle as well on a home run.

The Mariners have won five of their last six games at home, and are now 47-44 and in first place in the AL West. The Mariners won all three at Sacramento and are now 49-42 in third place, four games out of the NL East. Both teams were off yesterday, but Miami at home is 28-17 while Seattle on the road is 20-24. But the difference to me in this game, beyond the records home and away, is Bryan Woo pitching on the road, where he's 1-6 with a 6.38 ERA. Woo is really good at home, but he's got the Yips on the road. Max Meyer has been the Marlins best pitcher all year at 9-1 with a 2.53 ERA. Marlins win.

Both the Marlins and Mariners are trending upward. But Miami starter Max Meyer has been ace-worthy, including 5-0 with a 2.13 ERA at home, with a 1.78 ERA across June. Seattle starter Bryan Woo has an ERA north of 5 in his last seven, and an ERA north of 6 on the road all year. Miami’s OPS vs. RHPs the last two weeks is roughly 300 points higher.

On Tuesday night, I have to back the red hot Marlins behind All-Star pitcher Max Meyer, who is 9-1 on the season and 5-0 at home. In fact, Miami has not lost in 2026 when Meyer has pitched at Loan Depot Park (9-0). Also, he's given up two earned runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. All of those stats are enough for me to make this a 1.5 unit play.