Troy Melton has been lights out in four of his five starts for the Tigers, so we’ll back him again here vs. an Astros order that’s scored over three runs just once in its last five outings. When he comes out, Detroit’s bullpen, with a 1.74 ERA since June 10, takes over. We can simultaneously fade Houston’s highly inconsistent Tatsuya Imai.

Before tough losses against two Yankees lefties the last couple nights, Detroit was 22-16 at home and 12-28 on the road. They now get Kerry Carpenter back in the lineup vs. righty and Tatsuya Imai has been solid in some starts while getting blown up in others. It's been a mixed bag for the Astros rookie, who outside of Houston has made just two good starts, but one came early in the year against the A's and the other was indoors in Texas. When he's been forced to pitch on the road and outdoors more recently, he's allowed 11 runs in just 5.2 innings (3 starts). Backing the home team against a pitcher that's prone to big damage and an overworked bullpen.

Having played three straight close games to open the week, Houston's bullpen is quite taxed -- I doubt Josh Hader is available, for example. And the bullpen likely will be needed behind Tatsyua Imai (6.15 ERA). Meanwhile, Detroit fill-in starter Troy Melton (4-0, 2.56 ERA) has become a crucial part of the rotation. The Tigers' bullpen is in fine shape.