Tabbing Cam Schlittler to have a solid start here tonight against the Reds and help them win after a crushing loss last night. The only real worry on this prop is that Schlittler is kept in the game through the 7th inning to eat up some innings and we get a rogue couple of hits as we saw last time vs. Toronto. But at plus money here and projecting around 4.3 hits allowed, it makes for a fine half unit bet as we try different ways of backing Schlittler here.

I guess we're all in on the Yankees tonight, as we've backed Cam Schlittler on a couple of pitcher props and the Yankees to win by 2 runs at what I deem to be a fair price. Some projections have this price as being largely -ev but I would make it closer to -115 and my gut tells me the New York bats get to Rhett Lowder and a struggling bullpen. Schlittler should see a righty heavy order, and he's held opposing righties to a .171 avg and .236 xwOBA, severely limiting their production. The Reds offense has also been well below average against righties of late, with an OPS under .700 and 91 wRC+, making them 9% worse than league average in this split.

DraftKings. I like this matchup for Cam Schlittler tonight. The Cy Young candidate is under this line in 9/15 starts this season, including 5/6 against teams in the bottom half of batting average against right handers. The one exception was the Guardians, who started nine lefties that night. The Reds, who at .227 rank 27th against righties this season, project to start six righties tonight. Schlittler is dominant against this split, with a .171 average allowed (.200 xBA). And the Reds patient approach should especially burn them tonight. Schlittler pounds the zone (11th highest rate amongst qualifiers), but the Reds have both the sixth lowest in-zone swing rate and in-zone contact rate. There should be plenty of contact-less pitches from the Yankees ace tonight.

Cam Schlittler is the favorite to win AL Cy Young. Over his last 11 starts, Schlittler has allowed 0-1 runs in nine of them, and two runs in a 10th. The Yankees had scored 30 runs in three games before scoring just one run on Thursday. The offense has been fin without Aaron Judge (5.7 runs per game). Reds starter Rhett Lowder owns a 5.84 ERA in six road starts. He hasn’t gone six innings in a start since April 20, and the Reds bullpen has a 4.75 ERA in June.

Another brutal beat last night on both Ben Rice and Miguel Vargas total bases, as each hit a ball over 400 feet but incredibly, both were to direct centerfield again which resulted in outs. Rice had a hit before that though, and he's been crushing the ball even when making outs, so I'm going back to this prop against Rhett Lowder. He's been worse vs. lefties but his success keeping runs off the board looks a bit lucky, with a 5.28 xFIP in the last month. The bullpen behind him is one of the worst in MLB too, and we got the walk at least for Rice last night, so I'll play that again too.

Cam Schlittler may be pushed for some extra work with the Yankees bullpen struggling last night, and against a Reds team featuring a strikeout rate above 25% in the month of June vs righties, I won't overthink this. His splits favor strikeouts against lefties and he likely gets only two or three lefties in this Cincy lineup, but the righties include Eugenio Suarez, Spencer Steer, Tyler Stephenson, and Matt McLain, all with strikeout rates of 24% or higher vs. righties. 1st At Bat strikeout bets on all of them! Wouldn't be surprised if the price gets better if Noelvi Marte is in the lineup (unconfirmed) and I would make this a 1u bet if we got near +100 for a 7th K.