Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez is dynamic (1.59 ERA), but he’s about the only thing going right in Philly. The Cubs’ bullpen is better by over two full runs, and the team has a big .939 OPS vs. LHPs the last 15 days, offering a glimpse of hope. Cubbies starter Edward Cabrera (2.38 ERA) has been no slouch. Plus odds at home? We’ll take it.

I'm getting the much better team -- at least so far -- on an eight-game winning streak playing at home getting +1.5 at nearly the same price as the slumping road team's moneyline. Yeah, I'm going to play something on that. I get why the Phillies are favored behind Cristopher Sanchez (2-2, 1.59 ERA), but the Cubs saw him 10 days again and had a little success. Chicago's Edward Cabrera (2-0, 2.38 ERA) can be as dominant as anyone. Also as wild, so that's his thing. The Phils haven't seen him in 2026, and Cabrera had good numbers against them in 2025 while with Miami.

It's not exactly the "buy low" I had in mind as I'm laying some juice (BetMGM has the best price) for a struggling Phillies team, but I do love the pitching matchup. Christopher Sanchez hasn't been perfect this year, but he's a far better pitcher than Edward Cabrera. The Phillies bats have been quiet, but they're better against righties and I expect them to get to Cabrera, who has allowed plenty of baserunners over his last two outings.