Starting on normal four days rest, Parker Messick has been nothing short of incredible thus far, but also just threw 112 pitches in his last start. After that heavy workload, it seems the market is in agreement that he is likely to face some restrictions here tonight. Just a half unit, as he could still run a low pitch count and get into the 6th inning but to beat us he needs a low pitch count, plus keeping one of MLB's best offenses at bay for 5+ innings. The weather is warming up and I'm playing under 16.5 here at anything better than -115.

Houston got only its third win in the past 15 overall and second road win of the year (in 11 tries) on Monday but also was facing a weak link in the Cleveland rotation. That's certainly not the case here in stellar rookie lefty Parker Messick (3-0, 1.05 ERA). Needless to say, he's not keeping that up and did throw a lot of pitches last time out in taking a no-no into the ninth. But until he starts failing. Appears to be the weak link in the Houston rotation in 29-year-old rookie Ryan Weiss (0-2, 6.75 ERA).

The Astros lead baseball with 17 overs on the season, and I think they're going to go over again on Tuesday at Cleveland. Ryan Weiss is expected to be the Cleveland starter. But the main reason for taking the Astros over again is their bullpen continues to have trouble with their 5.88 ERA, allowing 70 runs, which is the most in baseball. The weather is supposed to be 71° with the wind blowing out to right field at 10 mph and a 10% chance of rain. Cleveland starter Parker Messick isn't going to give that much, so it's got to be the Astros that allow most of the scoring. The over is the play.