Bet365 at -140. Since coming back from a mid-season hamstring injury, Kodai Senga has struggled to reclaim his form. He’s pitched to a 5.22 ERA across seven starts, while only clearing this outs line once. He’ll now be pitching on four days rest for the first time this season - something he’s still not accustomed to having pitched on six days rest in Japan (he only had four such starts in 2023). As is, he’s not the most effort pitcher, needing 3.95 pitches per plate appearance (29th most out of 110 qualifiers). He’ll now face the Phillies in what should be a playoff-like atmosphere at Citi Field. The Mets pen is in good shape following the weekend series as well.

The Mets have won six out of the last eight meetings, including a sweep in April, but the Phillies won two of the last three meetings. The Phillies lost Zack Wheeler for the season, but they're playing good ball right now, winning six of their last seven games, and their new number one starter is on the mound tonight, Christopher Sanchez. Kodai Senga took the loss against the Nationals in his last start, allowing five runs. Sanchez allowed two runs over 6.1 innings in the Phillies 6-4 win over the Mariners. Sanchez has been a beast all season. The Phillies have a seven-game lead in the NL East, and I think they need to make a statement with their new ace. Phillies to win.

This is a big divisional matchup and at this price, I'm willing to back the Phillies to lead after the first five innings. Cristopher Sanchez has been stellar this season but stunk earlier in the year against this lineup on the road; looking for a better performance here. The Phillies' southpaw hasn't allowed more than one run in the first five innings through four August starts, while Kodai Senga has allowed 3+ runs in the first five in four of his last six starts. He's also allowed at least one home run in each of those starts and walked multiple batters in 5/6. There isn't a ton of success for these Philly hitters against Senga but at some point the narrative should shift.

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets may be Monday’s game of the day in MLB. Christopher Sanchez continues to dominate as he is coming off twelve strikeouts his last outing. For the Mets with Kodai Senga on the mound, it’s been close losses by one run each of his last three outings. Take the Phillies in game one Monday.