I rarely play road teams ... but this really isn't a road team considering the Rays are playing this year at the Yankees' spring complex. And that Tampa is mostly Yankees fans anyways. Giancarlo Stanton is back in the New York lineup after missing a few games. The Rays' Shane Baz has a 6.54 ERA at Steinbrenner Field. The Yanks' Carlos Rodon threw six shutout innings there earlier this year. TB is 15-19 vs. southpaws.

The Yankees and Rays start a three-game series tonight, with Carlos Rodon going against Shane Baz, and Baz has had some success against the Yankees. But the Baz we see this time has lost seven of his last eight starts for the Rays, and he hasn't had a winning decision since June 26th. He's been giving up a lot of runs lately such as in his last five starts, he's given up 23 runs. Rodon has beaten the Rays the last two seasons, and the Yankees have won his last two starts, with him allowing three runs combined. The Yankees are out of their slump, winning their last three and five of six. The Yankees have won the last three meetings. Yankees win.

The Tampa Bay Rays return home after playing six of their last seven series on the road, including a four-series West Coast road trip. Expect that to have an impact today against a Yankees team they lost their final three games to in July. Additionally, the Yankees ended a six-game road losing streak with Carlos Rodon on the mound his last road start against Texas. Take the Yankees in Game 1.

Cody Bellinger has struggled on the road this season, which is likely why the line is priced where it's at, but he is playing at the Yankees' Spring Training facility tonight. He has just 6 HRs on the road all season, and 1 of those did come at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa earlier this year. Rays' starter Shane Baz has a 6.54 ERA at home this season with 13 HRs allowed in 12 starts. He's also been hit hard since the All-Star break—opponents are batting .305 with an .869 OPS against him over his last 5 starts. We set Bellinger's line to homer at +380.

Carlos Rodon has long struggled with consistency however the veteran pitcher is enjoying a strong season. Rodon gets a fantastic matchup against a Rays team that hasn’t been hitting well and you could even argue are the worst offense post trade deadline. Rodon has solid career numbers and I like his chances of going 6+.