The Astros have won Framber Valdez's last 12 starts, with the veteran lefty allowing two or fewer runs 10 times. Houston has scored 23 runs over the past three games and should have success against Arizona starter Eduardo Rodriguez. He's been lit up in his last two starts, allowing five homers among 20 hits.

Jose Altuve is hitting just .218 against lefties but over the last few seasons he's been significantly better than that. Since entering July, he's hitting .365 with a 1.123 OPS as he's picked up 44 total bases from 68 at bats. The veteran has gone over the 1.5 line in 12/16 games during that time and I'm going to ride the hot hand tonight. Plus we get Altuve hitting 2nd on the away team, which should give us a plethora of opportunities. Eduardo Rodriguez will take the mound and he's allowed 12 home runs to righties in 63 innings, with a .295 average as he's struggled at home. At this price, I'm taking advantage of Altuve in this matchup.

This is the first time Eduardo Rodriguez will face the Astros this season. He’s faced Houston three times since 2023 and has allowed a combined 12 runs in 13.1 innings. The Astros have been one of the best offensive teams on the road thus far, hitting .254 with a .729 OPS. Framber Valdez has been excellent at home this season but shaky on the road with a 4.02 ERA. Arizona has been decent against lefties, batting .245 on the year, while all four games post All-Star have exceeded eight runs.

Eduardo Rodriguez has had a tough season and is sporting a career worst 5.94 ERA. Despite his shaky numbers it’s also fair to conclude Rodriguez is over performing in the strikeout department as well. He gets a very tough match up against an Astros team that is excellent against opposing southpaws, in addition to possessing the 6th lowest K Rate versus lefties.