The line has come down in the Pirates favor, but Mitch Keller has a 2-7 home record with a 3.89 ERA. Detroit has really been struggling offensively over their last 15 days, hitting .201 as a team but have a favorable matchup against Keller, who hasn’t gotten much run support this season. Casey Mize is off his worst start of the season but that was at home as he’s allowed three runs, or less, in each of his last six road starts. The Tigers are also 24-16 SU following a loss this season.

Casey Mize comes off his worst outing of the season, allowing six runs to the Mariners in a 15-7 loss, but in his four previous starts, the Tigers won with him allowing only five runs combined. The Tigers are on a run of losing seven of their last eight, but the Pirates have also lost 11 of their last 13, and they got the win yesterday, 3-0, because of Paul Skenes starting. Mitch Keller has only allowed four earned runs in his last four starts with the Pirates winning three of those games. But I like Detroit to win in a low-scoring game tonight.

The Tigers have the 29th-ranked batting average at .201 over the last 10 days, and the Dodgers rank 30th at .198. Both those teams will be in the playoffs, and they're just going through a July funk and I think Detroit snaps out of it today against a tough Mitch Keller. Casey Mize allowed six runs in a blowout loss in his last start to Seattle, but Seattle was scorching hot at that moment and Detroit was in the middle of losing seven of their last eight games. But in Mize’s previous four starts, the Tigers won them all with him allowing a total of five earned runs. Tigers are likely to win, and the game stays under.

I'm playing the Tigers at -118 on NoVig and would still play them up to -140 on traditional books. I'm willing to buy low on the Tigers during their offensive slump coming out of the All-Star break. I have them winning nearly 59%, which implies the line should be -144.

DraftKings. At some point, the Tigers bats will wake up - but right now, Detroit’s offense is slumping. Coming out of the All-Star Break, the Tigers have scored three runs in four games, with a paltry .469 team OPS. Mitch Keller has been reliable for the Pirates, pitching to a 3.48 ERA (3.82 xERA), and clearing this outs line in fifteen of his twenty starts. At 3.75 pitches per plate appearance, Keller is in the 71st percentile of qualified pitchers in terms of pitch efficiency. And his zone rating is the third highest, per Statcast. The Tigers have the eighth highest in zone swing percentage, meaning Keller should be able to work efficiently today.

First team to score wins? That seems as if it could apply to these sides that are struggling to put any runs on the scoreboard. It's no surprise the Pirates are laboring (just 26 runs across their last 13 games) but Detroit's malaise (only three runs in four games since the All-Star break, part of a current 1-7 slide, including a 3-0 loss last night) is almost as alarming. The pitching matchup doesn't suggest a fireworks show, either, as Tigers starter Casey Mize having allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his last eight starts. Meanwhile, Pirates counterpart Mitch Keller, rumored in the shopping window with the trade deadline looming, has a 1.96 ERA across his last six starts. Play Tigers-Pirates Under