Fading Eury Perez here in just his third start since returning from the IL and major surgery. Merrill Kelly has a rather large edge here at home against Perez, and faces a Marlins team that's be running hot. I like the DBacks to jump on Perez at some point in the early going and Kelly to hold the lead.

Ketel Marte just snapped a streak of 5 straight multi-hit games in his last start. He had 3 home runs in those 5 games. Marte is hitting .343 with 12 of his 15 HRs against RHPs. He has also been scorching hot in June, hitting .365 with 7 home runs in just 22 games. Marlins' SP Eury Perez hasn't given up a home run in his three starts this season after missing all of last season recovering from Tommy John Surgery. Perez did allow 1.5 HR/9 in 2023 before he got hurt, so we expect some regression going forward. He likely won't go too deep in this game, so expect Marte to see several bullpen arms. We set Marte's line at +300 to homer.

The Marlins have won four straight and they aren't good enough to keep that going. Eury Perez takes the mound against a D-backs offense that feasts at home, too. Merrill Kelly takes the ball for Arizona and he's been better at home. Everything lines up for a comfortable Diamondbacks win, so let's grab the plus money on the run line.

DraftKings. With Corbin Burnes out for the season and Zac Gallen largely ineffective, Merrill Kelly has been the stabilizing force atop the Diamondbacks starting rotation. Over his last nine games, Kelly is pitching to a 2.93 ERA, with 66 punch outs in just 55.1 innings, clearing this strikeout total in each start. Traditionally excellent at home, Kelly is pitching to a 3.09 ERA in Arizona this season. He’ll get the Marlins, who are a tough matchup right now - but Kelly has routinely been clearing this number in even the toughest of spots lately.

The Diamondbacks start a three-game series against the Marlins who they beat the last two series they've met. Both series were in Miami, one in August and one in April, both sweeps. The last time the Marlins were in Arizona, they won two out of three, and the Marlins have a four-game win streak going right now, which includes three straight wins at San Francisco, with the last two going over the total. That's the area that I am going to center around. The Diamondbacks average 10.25 runs a game and the Marlins average 9.3 runs per game, but the total is 8.5. Got to play the over.

Sometimes the best plays are the ones you don't bet. Nearly faded the Marlins on Thursday as I doubted they would sweep three in San Francisco. But a couple of things scared me off after using my new Dept. Q knowledge from Netflix (fantastic show). The Fish did sweep. That's fine, their bullpen is gassed and Arizona was off Thursday. Merrill Kelly is 3-2 with a 3.09 ERA at home and dominated the Marlins in Miami on April 15. I'll just admit in the dog days like this that I get lazy and play moneylines even though F5s or props have been much more profitable. It's so hot now I get lackadaisical and want to meet Potsie and the Fonz for a shake at Arnold's.