Miles Mikolas' ceiling is 18 outs, as he has yet to go longer than that this season. He faced the Reds earlier this season and was brilliant, but still only pitched 5.1 innings. Now Cincinnati enters this matchup hot against right-handed pitching, with the fifth-best offensive numbers over the past 15 games. With the excessive heat in St. Louis, I bet against Mikolas lasting six full innings.

Nolan Arenado is coming off back-to-back games with a home run. He's at home, where he has an .813 OPS compared to a .688 OPS on the road. Arenado is also historically much better against left-handed pitchers, and he'll be facing LHP Andrew Abbott today. Arenado is 7-for-15 with 2 home runs against Abbott in his career, so he's already had a great deal of success in this matchup. The home run index is at a 10 out of 10 in this game, which could turn a long fly ball into a home run.