The Yankees and Red Sox met last week at Yankee Stadium, and all three games went over the total. They weren't just nipping at a total of 8.5, they were crashing the 15,17, and 18 range. One of the games was started by Garrett Crochet, who starts today. Boston has stayed under in the last two games in wins against Tampa Bay, but in their previous five games, they went over the total. Ryan Yarbrough starts for the Yankees, and last week against the Red Sox, he allowed eight runs in four innings. Crochet allowed five runs in six innings. Just the over.

Pricy but we were having this discussion in the SportsLine Discord channel, and I said I'm playing Under 18.5 if it flipped from 17.5. And it has. First of all, the Yankees basically deport lefties, ranking first in the majors in OPS by far against them. Second, they just hit Crochet around last Saturday (he went six) at Yankee Stadium. I am a big Crochet guy -- that sounded Mother Goose-ish like Macrame or knitting -- but you just can't let that guy throw too many pitches with his injury history. I'll be pretty surprised if he comes out in T7 barring a no-hitter or the like. Plus, the Sox were off yesterday so the bullpen is fully ready.

This is a tough spot for the Yankees, traveling from Kansas City after a 1-0 win last night. They face a Red Sox team that didn't have to travel, just had a day off, and sends their ace Garrett Crochet to the mound. Boston has won five of their last seven, which includes two in Yankee Stadium, one of them behind Crochet. He was touched up for five runs in that outing thanks to a three run homer but I could see him being even better tonight, while I had Ryan Yarbrough tabbed for a solid home outing last time thanks to the Red Sox poor splits on the road. The price here shows value so if the F5 ends tied, I'll take my lumps.

Garrett Crochet and the Boston Red Sox defeated Ryan Yarbrough and the New York Yankees six days ago in New York. The pitching matchup was the same as today, and it’s tough for a starting pitcher to defeat the same team twice in less than a week. This is one of the most profitable MLB betting systems that I have utilized for over 20 years. The Yankees pitching staff have allowed the Red Sox to score double digits in the last two meetings. Boston is 0-5 after winning two straight games since May 1. I like the Yankees in this spot at plus money.