Bucs starter Mitch Keller is massively due a home win at 0-5 there this year despite pitching pretty well at PNC Park other than last time out vs. Houston. He gets no run support at all. Keller has allowed only 0.59 home runs per 9.0 IP this season overall, fifth-best among NL starters. Pittsburgh is playing much better of late and hitting .264 since May 23, the fourth-best mark in MLB during that stretch. Since Don Kelly took over as manager, the staff ERA of 3.19 ranks fifth in the majors. Miami's Sandy Alcantara is 0-4 with a 12.81 ERA on the road this year.

Oneil Cruz’s advanced metrics show he is among MLB’s hardest hitters, with a 97.2 mph average exit velocity and a 60.2% hard-hit rate in 2025. His barrel rate is an elite 23.6%, indicating frequent hard contact that translates into extra-base hits. Sandy Alcantara has allowed a .480 slugging percentage against left-handed batters as opposed to .378 vs. righties. Cruz has a slugging percentage of .674 against four-seam fastballs and .452 against sinkers, which are the two pitches Alcantara uses most frequently. The Marlins bullpen has allowed the 3rd most hits and 4th most home runs.

Oneil Cruz’s advanced metrics show he is among MLB’s hardest hitters, with a 97.2 mph average exit velocity and a 60.2% hard-hit rate in 2025. His barrel rate is an elite 23.6%, indicating frequent hard contact that translates into extra-base hits. Sandy Alcantara has allowed a .480 slugging percentage against left-handed batters as opposed to .378 vs. righties. Cruz has a slugging percentage of .674 against four-seam fastballs and .452 against sinkers, which are the two pitches Alcantara uses most frequently. The Marlins bullpen has allowed the 3rd most hits and 4th most home runs.

Sandy Alcantara stopped his streak of six consecutive games allowing 4 runs or more by allowing only two runs in his last start. Maybe it's a sign that he found his Cy Young form again, but the Marlins ended up losing that game to the lowly Rockies. The Marlins have lost eight of his last nine starts, and in the game that they won on May 28th against the Padres, Alcantara allowed six runs. I have to take the Pirates, who have won a season high four games in a row, with Mitch Keller, who started the Pirates last loss. The Pirates are having fun for the first time this season, ride the streak.

After a huge power surge to begin the season, Oneil Cruz hasn't homered in his last 9 games, but we think he's due and like the matchup against a struggling Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara has allowed just 2 home runs in his last 5 starts, but he's getting hit hard. His ERA is up to nearly 8, and he has a 2-7 record on the season. Alcantara has particularly struggled against left-handed hitters, who have an .877 OPS against him, largely due to a 23/18 BB-to-K ratio. Cruz is 1-for-3 with a home run against Alcantara in his career. We would set the line for Cruz to homer at +315, so there's strong value at +440.