Following an 11 run outburst, I'm going to fade the Rangers against Sonny Gray. It was just their third time scoring double digit runs and the Cardinals have the full bullpen available, plus a (5-1) Sony Gray on the hill. Gray has been slightly unlucky and his pitcher specific metrics show he's more of a 3.50 ERA kind of guy. Patrick Corbin has allowed at least three earned runs in three straight starts, despite not pitching as poorly as previous years. He is also getting a bit lucky with a .274 BABIP and left on base rate above 85%. Both are significantly different from last year and even if he's changed his approach, Corbin is due for regression. Cards bats bounce back after last night!

Was last night finally the buy signal on the Rangers? Perhaps, after Texas has been back-and-forth thru the first two months but might have lit a fuse last night in an 11-1 romp at Arlington. The offense finally clicked with 15 hits and a couple of homers (Marcus Semien, who was 4-for-4, hitting one and Wyatt Langford hitting another) as Jack Leiter also worked 5 2.3 shutout innings. For tonight, note that Patrick Corbin (3.75 ERA) has been serviceable on the mound all season, while Cards starter Sonny Gray has really slipped on the road, with a 6.75 ERA in three away starts. Play Rangers on Money Line