DraftKings. David Peterson is under this outs line in half of his eight starts. However, all of those overs came against either weak-hitting teams, and/or free-swinging teams. The Yankees are neither - they pace baseball with a 150 wRC+ and .882 OPS against lefties, and see the ninth most pitches per plate appearance. Peterson is a low ball pitcher (91st percentile in ground-ball rate) - and the Yankees as a team have an .876 OPS against ground-ball pitchers. Peterson has allowed a .951 OPS the third time through the order, and I expect this one to be managed tightly.

Both games of the Subway Series have gone under the total thus far. The Mets have been hitting lefties rather well this season, .262 average. Max Fried has only allowed a combined five runs in his nine starts this season along with a 1.44 ERA at home. The Yankees lead the league in average against lefties, hitting .277, which is why the total is higher. David Peterson has only allowed more than two runs once this season and is backed by the second-best bullpen in the NL with a 2.93 ERA.

It's going to be 70° at Yankee Stadium with winds blowing out to right-center at 17 mph with a 5% chance of rain as the Mets visit for the final time this year. This is the rubber match. Good pitching matchup tonight, although the Yankees lost for the first time with Max Fried in his ninth start, losing 2-1 at Seattle when he only allowed one run. Fried has allowed only two runs between his last five starts and has a 1.11 overall ERA. David Peterson has been steady for the Mets, who won six of his eight starts, but the Yankees are going to hit him. Yankees to win, run-line.