Mets starter Griffin Canning (4-1, 2.61 ERA) has an expected ERA of 3.93 and has given up a career-high hard-hit rate of 46 percent. The Diamondbacks are tied with the Dodgers for the best OPS against right-handed pitching (.801). Arizona starter Ryne Nelson has pitched much better than his 5.82 ERA indicates; he has an expected ERA of 3.35. He tossed four shutout innings against the Mets on April 29.

One of many reasons the Mets have been flying high is Griffin Canning. New York won all five of his April starts, and Canning's last three outings have been especially good, allowing just 2 runs and 14 hits across 16 IP while also picking up wins in his last four starts. Meanwhile, the D-backs are back home after an NL East swing on the opposite coast at the Mets and Phils, and they did win 2 of 3 at Citi Field. NY batters have had a look at starter Ryne Nelson, who worked four clean innings of relief last Tuesday in the Mets' 8-3 win, but still with a 5.82 ERA. Arizona is also only 8-8 at Chase Field. Play Mets on Money Line.

The Mets have lost five of their last six games, and four of the losses were by one run, the other was by two runs, with two losses coming against the Diamondbacks, whom they face tonight in Arizona. The over looks like the best play in this game because of Ryne Nelson starting for the Diamondbacks in his first start of the year, subbing for Corbin Burnes. He hasn't been too effective in relief this year. The Mets have won Griffin Canning’s last five starts, with him getting credit for wins in the last four. The Diamondbacks have gone over seven of their last 11 games with a shaky bullpen lately. Over is the play.

I like the Mets in this spot with Griffin Canning on the bump. The Mets are 5-1 when he pitches with 3 straight lopsided victories (28-7 RD). Ryne Nelson has a 5.82 ERA for AZ and while he pitched 4 scoreless vs NY in the last outing, I doubt it happens again. Frankie Lindor, Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo and Jess Winkler all have OPS of 1.141 or higher vs him, many with multi HRs in a small sample size.