I really think we're getting good value here on both the ML and -1.5 price for the Yankees tonight. The O's have been MLB's worst team so far against lefties, with a putrid .491 OPS and strikeout rate above 27%. Carlos Rodon has looked solid over his last couple of starts and the Yankees bullpen was well rested last night thanks to Ryan Yarbrough eating up some innings after Will Warren's early departure. It looks like a hot night in Baltimore and the wind blowing out, so Rodon will need to keep the ball in the park, but I make him and the Bombers a much heavier favorite over Kyle Gibson and this O's offense.

The Yankees stranded nine baserunners and struck out 15 times in Monday's frustrating 4-3 loss in Baltimore. I'm going back to the well with New York, which has a sizable pitching edge with Carlos Rodon facing Kyle Gibson. Gibson hasn't pitched in the majors this season. Rodon should dominate a lineup that ranks dead last in OPS versus southpaws (.491).

FanDuel. The mercurial Carlos Rodon has pitched well of late, with two straight starts allowing no earned runs. Overall, he’s cleared this strikeout line in five of his six starts, with 45 strikeouts in 36 innings pitched. He now gets the Orioles, who’ve been a disaster against lefties this season: 27.3% K% and a cellar-dwelling 48 wRC+. Power left-handed arms have had their way with Baltimore, as Mackenzie Gore, Tarik Skubal, Andrew Abbott, Kris Bubic, and Garrett Crochet all had at least eight strikeouts versus the Orioles.

The Orioles are among the top five teams in strikeout rate and are the worst team in baseball against lefties (.177 AVG/.491 OPS). Carlos Rodon has struck out at least eight in each of his last four starts and has thrown well on the road.

I would still play this at -170, as I think the strikeout props are miss-priced here by a wide margin. Carlos Rodon has struck out at least eight batters in four straight and despite lasting just four innings in his starts against the O's last year (both in Baltimore), he still went over this line in each. After the O's won on Monday, look for Rodon to turn in a solid performance against a team striking out at the 5th highest rate against left handed pitchers, while producing a league worst OPS. His swinging strike rate is down from previous years but the called strike rate is up (not sure it's sustainable) and he's running a 30%+ whiff rate over the last couple starts.

I'm not a big Carlos Rodon guy but he's facing MLB's worst lineup with RISP and a team that is bottom 3 in MLB in OPS with RISP dating to June 21 of last year, right after the O's took 3 of 4 in the Bronx. I expect this will be Kyle Gibson's season debut after missing all of spring training and signing late - that's usually a problem. Yankees getting Devin Williams out of closer role is a win for us here. New York is actually the better defensive team now, too, after their upgrades this offseason. The Orioles are just 2-6 in their last eight games, so I'll back the Yankees on the runline.