It'll be 65° at Yankee Stadium with no chance of rain and 11-mile-an-hour winds from right to left field, and the over has been a good play in this series, hitting eight out of the last nine times. Jose Berrios hasn't hit his mark this year, allowing 15 runs in his four starts. Carlos Carrasco has allowed three runs or more in three of his four starts. These starters are a great starting point in an over equation. The Blue Jays have been an under team all season, but the Yankees bring something out of them. The Yankees have gone over 12 games on the season, scoring 5.5 runs per game and allowing 4.2 runs for a total of 9.7. Just the over.

I was in mid-type when I saw Thomas Casale posted same play. If Jose Berrios vs. Aaron Judge were a famous one-sided sports rivalry, Berrios is the Washington Generals and AJ the Harlem Globetrotters. Or I guess if you want to go Canada-USA beef: Drake-Kendrick Lamar. I have no idea what that means ... but apparently Lamar is winning and that's Judge against Berrios (who is also struggling this year overall): 1.346 OPS in 34 at-bats with two doubles and five homers. I don't really do HR props and am just fine with a ground-rule double in the bottom of the first so I can then ignore this game.

Aaron Judge enters Friday's matchup with Toronto hot, recording 11 hits in his last five games. He has also had success against Jays starter Jose Berrios, batting .382 with five home runs and 11 RBIs in 34 career at-bats. I'll lay -137 that Judge goes over 1.5 bases on Friday.

We have this play as fair value, setting his line at +380 to hit a HR. Anthony Santander has a great opportunity to do some damage today despite a poor career showing against Carrasco, going 0-7. However, several of those at-bats came in 2018 when Carrasco was a different pitcher than he is now. Santander is currently in a bit of a slump over his last three games, but a soft-throwing righty and a short porch at the stadium could be the perfect combination to get him back on track. Most of Santander's power numbers come from hitting left-handed against righties, and he has already hit both of his home runs this season from the left side against right-handed pitchers.

Ben Rice missed a start after being hit on the elbow, but it seems to have had little effect on him as he immediately hit a HR after returning to the lineup. With a 1.148 OPS vs. RHPs this season, Rice has been producing great numbers, and his 4 HRs in just 10 games at Yankee Stadium make this play stand out as well. Jose Berrios has been giving up home runs, with 6 in 5 starts this season and a total of 31 HRs allowed last year. Given Rice's hard-hit percentage of 64.2%, which leads all of MLB, we see value in the +475 line, while our model sets the line at +410 for Rice to hit a home run.

I don't like either of these starters right now, but the Yankees are such a better hitting club, and they are hot right now. The Yanks have a .260/.348/.546 slash at home, with a MLB-leading .894 OPS. Jose Berrios is gonna be in trouble here. The Jays' lineup runs about 4 bats deep. The Yankees are 8-4 at home and the Jays are 4-8 on the road.