DraftKings. Chris Bassitt has started the season strong, but this is a nice opportunity to bet on some regression (0.77 ERA versus 2.86 xERA, 40% hard hit). The Astros have started to hit again, and have traditionally succeed at home. As is Bassitt is under this line in three of four starts.

Yordan Alvarez is batting .209 at home in 2025 with 0 HRs in 43 at-bats, a stark decline from his career .296 home average. If there is any pitcher he would break his Minute Maid homerless streak, it would be Chris Bassett. That’s because Alvarez has five HRs in 19 at-bats in his career. Yordan's xSLG (.516) is significantly higher than his slugging percentage (.338). With an average exit velocity ranked in the 94th percentile, it’s just a matter of time for Alvarez to break out. Minute Maid Park ranks seventh for left-handed HRs in 2025, with its short left-field porch (315 feet) favoring pull hitters.

Yordan Alvarez has owned Chris Bassitt over the years, batting .421 against him. In 19 career at-bats, Alvarez has eight hits, five home runs and 11 RBIs. Alvarez has recorded an RBI in two straight games. I'll back him to extend that streak to three at +145 odds.

The Astros have won five of seven at home and Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt isn't nearly as good as he's pitched so far. He's going to regress and this is a good spot. Yordan Alvarez has monster numbers against him, too.

Last night's opener in the Blue Jays-Astros series was 7-0 Astros, which stayed under the total, making that 12 unders for the Astros and 14 unders for the Blue Jays. We got a great spot tonight where the under looks like the play with the Blue Jays averaging 3.7 runs per game and the Astros averaging 3.8. We also got a pitcher in Chris Bassitt that has allowed only two runs in his four starts, and all four stayed under. Under is the play.

The Astros have beaten the Blue Jays five out of the last six games, including last night in the first of three in the series. I bet the Blue Jays in this game because I think I have an edge in the pitching matchup with Chris Bassitt pitching against Ronel Blanco. Bassitt has been fantastic in all four starts, allowing only two runs, and in his last game, he struck out 10 in five innings. Blanco has allowed an average of three runs in each of his four starts. Blanco has gone over three of his four starts, while Bassitt has stayed under all four starts. Toronto gets the win.

Chris Bassitt has been excellent on the mound for Toronto, but his offense has let him down—failing to score more than 3 runs in any of his starts. He’s getting the Mets’ 2018-2019 Jacob DeGrom treatment when DeGrom’s record was barely over .500 despite winning two Cy Youngs because he got no run support. I expect regression from Bassitt who had a 1.46 WHIP last year and at 36 years old isn’t getting younger. Houston’s Ronel Blanco has been just okay, but this pick is more about backing an Astros team that performs better at home against a Jays team that struggled on the road last season. With value on our side at -108, this moneyline play makes sense.