Four of the last five meetings between the Diamondbacks and the Orioles have gone over the total, with the Orioles winning four. Both of these teams have been hitting and getting over the total, with the Orioles 7-3 to the over and the Diamondbacks 6-3 to the over. The Orioles average 9.4 runs a game and the Diamondbacks 10.9. Arizona comes off a so-so road trip at 3-3, beating the Yankees but losing to the Nationals. Zac Gallen comes off a gem, not allowing any runs in 6.2 innings while striking out 13 Yankees in a game that stayed under. He had it working, just the opposite from his first start where he had fours across the board. Just the over.

A market that was a on the decline last season despite being a strong home pitcher was Zac Gallen. One could consistently get cheap underdog prices on the away team, and that has carried over to this season. Despite shutting down the Yankees his last time out, Gallen has not been consistent enough to trust in back to back spots against potent lineups. That worry grows even more so with the Diamondbacks bullpen to close out a game. Take the Orioles as the small road underdog.

Zach Eflin vs. Zac Gallen. Good pitching matchup here between the two Zach/Zac's. Eflin has gone 6.0 innings in each of his two starts and has had success vs. the current Diamondbacks' lineup in a limited sample size, holding them to a .176 average in 51 career at-bats. Gallen pitched 6.2 innings in his last outing and threw 101 pitches. I think we see both pitchers go past 5.0 innings with each holding the opposing lineup in check.

The O's are a horribly flawed fundamental team since the middle of last season - poor fielding, terrible base running, missing cut off guys, can't control the run game. The Snakes will run all over Adley Rutschman and a staff that can't hold runners. The O's only score when they hit HRs and Zac Gallen gave up just 13 last season. The O's were held to 4 runs or less in 5 of 9 games. Gunnar Henderson missed basically all of spring with injury and is still getting his legs under him. Colton Cowser injury is already looming large as is departure of Anthony Santander. AZ led MLB in runs last year and mashing again now.