It seems as if the Phils are thinking that ex-Marlin Jesus Luzardo might prove an upgrade to their rotation. In truth Rob Thomson will probably be glad to get five innings of work from Luzardo, but until we get a better look at him perform in his new uniform, will hold off on backing the Phils at such a price. The over however looks different today in D.C. as the Phils did a real number of Nats starter Jake Irvin last season, tattooing him with a 7.59 ERA across four starts. Irvin also had issues at Nats Park where he had a 5.01 ERA last season, and Washington's defense looked shoddy again in the opener. Expect some runs in D.C. this afternoon. Play Phillies-Nats Over

Fading the 5th strikeout from Jake Irvin here at u4.5 (-110) on DraftKings. This should be priced -125.

Jake Irvin ducked and dived and survived way more than I thought he would last season but he has suspect stuff. I have a hard time seeing that holding through a second year in the tough NL East. Most key Phillies bats see him well and the Nats pen already looks catastrophic. Irvin had a 5.93 EA in 5 outings vs the Phillies last year. Jesus Luzardo has dealt with considerable injury woes but struck me as one of the most promising young lefties in the game in '23 in Miami. He knows this division well and this Nats lineup is short on experience. Phillies have won 11 of their last 15 games vs Washington.