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Sat, Oct 1212:08 am UTCDodger Stadium
68 F
Track OnCBS Sports
San Diego
Padres
SD
Last 5 ML
W/L97-72
ATS86-83
O/U86-78-5
FINAL SCORE
0
-
2
Los Angeles
Dodgers
LAD
Last 5 ML
W/L109-69
ATS93-85
O/U100-71-7
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ML
97-72
Win /Loss
109-69
86-83
Spread
93-85
86-78-5
Over / Under
100-71-7
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
SD @ LAD
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MONEYLINE
SD @ LAD
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OVER / UNDER
SD @ LAD
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22%
PUBLIC
78%
MONEY
18%
PUBLIC
82%
MONEY
Over77%
PUBLIC
Under23%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

Money LineSan Diego +122
LOSS
Unit1.0
+365
9-6 in Last 15 MLB Picks
+244
15-14 in Last 29 MLB ML Picks
+326
5-2 in Last 7 LAD ML Picks
Jason's Analysis:

I thought the Friars would have wrapped this up by now. I didn't think they would go into a prolonged batting funk ... But I love the fact that they can get after Yammamoto here, who they own. This is the third big spot for him vs the Friars - opening day on the Far East, opening game of this series, and now the deciding Game 5. Manny Machado will lead the way and the Dodgers will hit the starter again and silence the crowd at Chavez Ravine. This is where the Dodgers come up short. I prefer the length of the Friars lineup, still.

Pick Made: Oct 11, 7:44 pm UTC on FanDuel
Money LineL.A. Dodgers -139
WIN
Unit1.0
+3381
93-55 in Last 148 MLB ML Picks
+1484
36-20 in Last 56 SD ML Picks
Zack's Analysis:

Success twice in a postseason series as a starting pitcher is so tough to replicate. I expect that to be the case tonight for San Diego Padres starter Yu Darvish. Darvish has also had issues in close out postseason games where he is 0-2 in his career. Losses in 2017 in game seven of the World Series, and two seasons ago in the NLDS to the Philadelphia Phillies. Take the Dodgers to win a tight one, and advance to the NLCS.

Pick Made: Oct 11, 5:18 pm UTC on BetMGM
Money LineSan Diego +122
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1708
63-43-2 in Last 108 MLB Picks
+634
20-14 in Last 34 MLB ML Picks
+818
30-21 in Last 51 LAD ML Picks
Micah's Analysis:

It's the Padres and Dodgers. Yoshinobu Yamamoto won't be around for very long as in his last seven starts he's only grabbed one win and had six no decisions like his last start against the Padres in game one when he gave up five runs in three innings but the Dodgers eventually won 7-5. It's not good for him right now. Whereas Yu Darvish is at his absolute finest form right now with six straight wins including game two when he dominated the Dodgers with one run in seven innings in a 10-2 victory. I think Darvish is going to inspire everybody including the Padre bats. And the best part of it all, the Padres are an underdog for some reason. The Padres win.

Pick Made: Oct 11, 4:16 pm UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadSan Diego +1 -125
LOSS
Unit1.0
+359
12-6 in Last 18 MLB Picks
+2
9-6 in Last 15 MLB ATS Picks
+378.5
16-8 in Last 24 LAD ATS Picks
Matt's Analysis:

I'd feel better about San Diego's chances if it were Joe Musgrove instead of Yu Darvish as Darvish doesn't have a great history of coming up big in big games, but he was terrific in the Game 2 victory in Los Angeles. Counterpart Yoshinobu Yamamoto was hammered in Game 1. The Padres' bullpen is much deeper/better.

Pick Made: Oct 11, 3:03 pm UTC on BetRivers
Money LineSan Diego +120
LOSS
Unit1.0
+2163
93-76 in Last 169 MLB ML Picks
+390
8-4 in Last 12 SD ML Picks
Bruce's Analysis:

It's come down to a winner-take-all in this NLDS tonight. Despite Game Four's result, the advantage, might be with the Padres. Simply, Yu Darvish has been outstanding lately on the mound, with SD winning in all six of his starts since the start of September. That includes Sunday's Game 2 romp when Darvish allowed just one run and three hits thru 7 IP. Moreover, he tied Shohei Ohtani in knots. As for LA's Yoshinobu Yamamoto, he was ineffective in Game One, chased following the third inning after allowing 5 runs and 5 hits, only for the Dodger offense to eventually spare him a loss. Meanwhile, unlike most other teams, the Padres relish these trips to Chavez Ravine. Play Padres on Money Line

Pick Made: Oct 11, 8:47 am UTC on BetMGM

Team Injuries

San Diego Padres
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025
Avatar
SP
Michael King
KneeIl
Avatar
CF
Jackson Merrill
AnkleProbable
Avatar
RP
Carter Loewen
UndisclosedIl
Saturday, Aug 09, 2025
Avatar
SP
Joe Musgrove
ElbowIl
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025
Avatar
SP
Jhony Brito
ForearmIl
Los Angeles Dodgers
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025
Avatar
1B
Enrique Hernandez
ElbowIl
Avatar
RP
Kirby Yates
BackIl
Wednesday, Aug 20, 2025
Avatar
DH
Shohei Ohtani
ThighProbable
Monday, Aug 18, 2025
Avatar
3B
Max Muncy
ObliqueIl
Avatar
2B
Tommy Edman
AnkleIl
Avatar
2B
Hye Seong Kim
ShoulderIl
Sunday, Aug 17, 2025
Avatar
SP
Tony Gonsolin
ElbowIl
Friday, Aug 15, 2025
Avatar
RP
Brock Stewart
ShoulderIl
Avatar
SP
Roki Sasaki
ShoulderIl
Thursday, Aug 14, 2025
Avatar
RP
Brusdar Graterol
ShoulderIl
Monday, Aug 11, 2025
Avatar
RP
Tanner Scott
ElbowIl
Avatar
RP
Evan Phillips
ElbowIl
Friday, Aug 01, 2025
Avatar
SP
Gavin Stone
ShoulderIl
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025
Avatar
RP
Michael Kopech
KneeIl
Wednesday, Jul 23, 2025
Avatar
RP
Giovanny Gallegos
UndisclosedIl
Monday, Jul 21, 2025
Avatar
SP
River Ryan
ElbowIl
Wednesday, Apr 02, 2025
Avatar
RP
Kyle Hurt
ElbowIl
Monday, Mar 17, 2025
Avatar
SP
Michael Grove
ShoulderIl

Season Splits

All Games
ALL
All Games
56%
94-74, +873
94-72, -1055
56%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
56%
47-36, +1360
47-36, -741
56%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
52%
38-35, +1088
82-51, -352
61%
When Line was +108 to +138
MONEY LINE
When Line was -161 to -131
58%
10-7, +521
23-12, +420
65%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
57%
30-22, +1442
41-30, -799
57%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
56%
37-29, +1042
26-21, +2
55%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
55%
64-51, +112
17-15, -38
53%
After a Day Off
REST
After a Day Off
79%
19-5, +1380
11-15, -791
42%
vs LAD
HEAD TO HEAD
vs SD
55%
10-8, +482
7-9, -379
43%
when Yu Darvish starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Yoshinobu Yamamoto starts
76%
13-4, +755
12-7, -73
63%
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