Baltimore is the top over team in the league this season. The Orioles are hitting .282 with a .863 OPS over their last seven days and face Carlos Carrasco who owns a 5.36 home ERA. Dean Kremer owns an xERA of 5.25 and has allowed a combined 16 runs over his last six starts. Following a road loss to their current opponent, Baltimore is 14-7 to the over on the season.

I don't know what happened to the Orioles bats yesterday but they just died, but the game still went over for their 10th in 11 games and 13 of their last 15 have gone over. I like the over again today because both teams should hit based on the starting pitchers Dean Kremer has lost three of his last four starts and three of the last four also went over. Carlos Carrasco has lost his last three starts and in his previous two starts, he gave up six runs each. I would think the Orioles would be very excited to be facing Carrasco. Just the over.

A Baltimore Orioles player I fully expect to break out of his slump is Adley Ruchsman. Rutchsman hit just .132 for the month of July, and went 0 for 4 in yesterday’s opener against the Guardians. Still he is hitting .261 overall for the season and will get to see struggling Guardians starter Carlos Carrasco. Take Rutchsman to have a productive night and clear his total bases prop.

Think this is my first Under play on 15.5 outs of the year, and I'm not planning to make it a regular thing but Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco should no longer be in a big-league rotation -- much less for an AL contender. He had a 6.84 ERA in five starts last month and went over 5 IP only vs. the awful Tigers and White Sox lineups. Overall, he has topped five in three of his past 11. The Guardians bullpen is fully ready behind him, so I expect a short leash against a great lineup. Carrasco went five in Baltimore on June 26. The SL Model has him at 4.9 innings.