San Francisco has dipped to three games below .500, but still remains a strong home team on the year at 26-20. Although the Blue Jays have won three of four games, it is still a tough spot for them today. It’s their sixth game in a row on a West Coast road trip with an early start time. Take the Giants with the Blue Jays coming off an abnormal ten runs yesterday, which matched a season high.

On the season, the Blue Jays have been solid at avoiding strikeouts but in a shorter, more recent sample, they're seeing some regression. To start July, Toronto has allowed five of seven right handed starters to eclipse this line and the two misses both came at four strikeouts. You've heard me talk about Jordan Hicks and his strikeout upside before, but another interesting piece is he had 17 whiffs in his last start and 10 in the start prior; some very encouraging numbers. Umpire Bill Miller generally provides a significant boost to strikeouts as well, so I'm backing Hicks to finish off a 5th strikeout at plus odds.

My model has the Giants winning 56.5 percent of simulations which implies this line should be -130 with Jordan Hicks against Kevin Gausman. This is game six of a long nine-game road trip for Toronto. My main concern with Guasman is the career high barrel rate and the fastball he's now throwing 53 percent of pitches. The .415 xwOBA and 93.1 MPH average exit velocity are significantly below MLB average. I'm on the Giants here at -110.

Jordan Hicks hasn't been as good lately as he was the first 6 wees of the season, but I'll take him at home over what's left of Kevin Gausman. Both these starters used to pitch for the other team, so plenty of familiarity there. Gausman has a 5.27 ERA since June, allowing 9 HR in 42 2/3. SF entered play Wed winning 7 of last 9 at Oracle and 26-19 there for season. Giants also 34-29 vs RHP. Jays are bad on road and are a failing team ending a road trip in limbo as trade deadline approaches. Don't like their vibe. Entered Wed 6-14 in last 20 games.