The Padres own a collective .826 OPS against Arizona's Ryne Nelson. Look for them to jump on him early and for San Diego's Dylan Cease to bounce back from a brutal outing. The Padres have won 12 of 16 and, a month ago, lit up Nelson for six runs (five earned) in 3 1/3 innings. Nelson doesn't generate a lot of strikeouts, which should spell trouble in this matchup.

There's a pattern in this series, as none of the first eight games have landed Under eight runs. Indeed, 30 runs already have been scored over the first two contests of this weekend set. The pitching matchup in the rubber game suggests more of the same, as Dylan Cease has been erratic of late for the Padres and couldn't get out of the fourth inning at Texas last time out. Arizona’s Ryne Nelson had similar problems in his start at Petco Park last month, yielding six runs (five earned) in 3 ⅓ frames.

We like the way San Diego has been playing and feel the opposite about Arizona. The Padres have positive vibes at home and already have thrashed Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson twice this season. He has had some non-competitive starts, and Arizona’s bullpen leaves plenty to be desired. Dylan Cease has been very solid for the Padres, and his ERA is much better at home. His previous start against the D-Backs this season was quite good, as he allowed just one run in 6 ⅔ innings.