We talked about this one on The Early Edge and now I'm solidifying it as a play as I think The Astros check enough boxes to get the win on the road tonight. I'm not expecting much from the Blue Jay bats, but the Astros bats have been heating up against lefties and Kikuchi has shown some significant regression over his last few starts. We may have the better pitcher, bats and bullpen in this one and yet the Astros are an extremely short favorite.

Sometimes you can find out a bit more about a team in defeat, and perhaps that's the case with the Astros last night. Houston's rediscovered resolve was on display when almost fighting all of the way back from a 7-0 deficit, but even with the L it's still 10 wins in 12 for the Astronomicals -- as Marty Brennaman used to affectionately refer to them -- and they didn't lose ground to the Mariners in the AL West. Tonight's starter Ronel Blanco has spun a 1.75 ERA across his last four outings, while Blue Jays counterpart Yusei Kikuchi has been hit hard (10.64 ERA last three) as Toronto is in the midst of a 4-10 skid.

The Astros should be a stiff test for Yusei Kikuchi, as they enter this game as one of the top teams against lefties over the last month and on an 8-2 run in their last 10 games. Kikuchi has been a different pitcher since turning the page to June and I'm not convinced July will treat him better, as he's been hit hard nearly half of the time and barreled up a good amount of late. Over his last six starts, Kikuchi has allowed at least four runs in four of them and gone six full innings just twice since mid-May. The pitch count hasn't run up very high lately either, with just one of six starts in June being of 90+ pitches.

Yusei Kikuchi has struggled over his previous seven starts where he owns an ERA of over 7.00 and has failed tog o 6+ IP in six of his previous seven starts. He will face an Astros team that has been swinging the bats well recently and own the 6th highest OPS since June 1st. Houston also has very solid lifetime numbers against Kikuchi and collectively sport an OPS over 1.000 in 84 career ABs.