This is a buy-low spot on Luis Gil after a rough outing against Baltimore. His season-long .190 xBA and .315 xSLG are among the top 10% of the league, and he's racking up strikeouts at a 29.3% rate. Citi Park is a great pitching environment, plus the Yankees will need him to go deep after emptying the bullpen in a wild opening game of the Subway Series. Gil has gone over this line in 8 of his last 10 starts.

The Mets' resurgence (they can get back to .500 with another win tonight in the Subway Series) can be more than partly traced to improved offense. Across the last nine games, the scoring barrage has continued with 66 runs in that span. That's the challenge tonight at Citi Field facing Yankees starter Luis Gil, whose run of good form was shattered in his last start vs. the Orioles, not even lasting two innings while allowing seven runs. The Yanks, however, did get their own offense going late in last night's game before falling short, and would expect them to do some business off of Sean Manaea, who has had a bit of a bumpy ride in June (6.75 ERA this month). Play Yankees-Mets "Over"

I played Mets RL here in part because the Yankees' Luis Gil was rocked last time out and might be regressing a bit, but I still believe he comes out for the bottom of the sixth obviously barring being rocked or having a high pitch count -- both are why Gil hasn't topped five innings in B2B starts, but he did in seven straight before that. The Yanks used the bullpen quite a bit last night.

Look for runs again on Wednesday between the New York Yankees and New York Mets. Luis Gil is coming off his worst start of the season, surrendering seven runs against the Baltimore Orioles. It also ended the Yankees nine straight wins in Gil’s starts. In the month of June the Mets rank first in batting average in the month of June, and both teams are in the top five in home runs. Play the over.

Luis Gil has gotten off to a great start to his rookie season and has been arguably the Yankees best starting pitcher through the first half of the season. However Gil has had a few concerning outings and possesses a 5.50 ERA in June. Gil has also failed to record 7+ Ks in four consecutive starts and 10/15 appearances this season. He gets a very tough matchup against a red hot Mets lineup that has the best OPS in the month of June, in addition to the 7th lowest K Rate. Futhermore Gil's strikeout metrics aren't overly impressive and he certainly appears to be a regression candidate in that department.

The surging Mets might simply be the better team right now with all the Yankees injuries, etc., and we get a 1.5-run head start at home at a cheaper price than any Yankees moneyline. NYY's Luis Gil is still the AL Rookie of the Year favorite but was bombed last time out by Baltimore, his second not-so-great outing of June. It appears regression has arrived. The Mets' Sean Manaea probably doesn't go more than five innings as he usually doesn't but also generally only allows two earned or so. Big game for the home side as it can get to .500 for the first time since early May. The Mets are also off Thursday so they can empty the bullpen if need be.

I like this bounce back opportunity for Luis Gil who had a poor outing at Yankee Stadium against the Orioles. Sean Manaea remains a strong regression candidate, especially with his sinking fastball .338 xwOBA vs. 267 wOBA. I have the Yankees winning 61 percent of sims which implies this line should be -156.