This is an odd total. Brandon Pfaadt has pitched better than last year thus far, but he’s allowed three runs, or more, in three of four starts in June. Minnesota has been hitting .271 with a .835 OPS over its last seven days while the Diamondbacks have been struggling, hitting .209 with a .580 OPS. Joe Ryan has pitched his best on the road, 2.49 ERA, only allowing two runs, or more, in five of his seven road starts. In the first game of a road series, Minnesota games have gone under in six of the last eight.

The D-backs are back home after a mostly-encouraging road trip in which the pitching impressed at times. The Chase Field venue also ought to suit Brandon Pfaadt just fine tonight after he has featured in Phoenix just once since May 15; across his last two appearances at home, Pfaadt allowed just 2 runs and 8 hits across 13 IP (1.38 ERA) in a pair of D-backs wins. Meanwhile, though Joe Ryan hasn't pitched badly this month for the Twins, Minnesota has nonetheless lost in three of his last four starts. Play D-backs on Money Line

Royce Lewis has been on fire lately, getting over 1.5 total bases in 14 of his last 20 games. He's 3-1 after failing to get two or more total bases during that time (he had zero hits on Sunday before yesterday's day off). Arizona's Chase Field is known to be a hitter-friendly park with excellent sight lines. This season, Chase Field ranks seventh in doubles and first in triples. Over the past three seasons, it has consistently ranked sixth in doubles and second in triples, so it's not just a one-year anomaly. In June, Brandon Pfaadt is allowing a season-high .484 slugging percentage.

Brandon Pfaadt hasnt been as bad as his ERA may suggest, however his strikeout production leaves a lot to be desired and is nothing to write home about. Pfaadt is sporting a 10.3% SwStr% and possesses an unspectacular 22.3% K Rate. On the surface this may appear to be a neutral matchup against a Twins squad that is ranked 15th in K Rate, however Minnesota owns an exceptional 17.7% K Rate since June 1st, good for the second lowest average in the MLB. This line should have opened at 4.5.