Marcus Stroman has an expected ERA of 4.47, way above his actual 2.82 ERA. He's a major regression candidate and the Red Sox have an above-average lineup. Stroman is coming off a season-high 102 pitches last Tuesday in Kansas City. Look for him to exit before completing six innings.

Yankees have won four of the last six against the Red Sox but lost last night. Marcus Stroman is on the mound and the Yankees won his last four starts and has been stellar even when he hasn't had a good game like against the Twins when he gave up five runs and allowed two home runs but the Yankees still won eight to five. That's what I think is going to happen tonight he's going to give up three or four runs but the Yankees are going to score on Cutter Crawford. Crawford has lost seven straight. Yankees win, likely over.

You can't win every night, so we'll excuse the Yankees for a rare stumble on Saturday vs. the Bosox. NY is still 12-4 across its past sixteen games, and will like is chances in tonight's rubber match of the weekend set behind Marcus Stroman, winning in nine of his past eleven starts. Stroman is also off a good effort on Tuesday at Kansas City, spinning 5 2/3 innings of shutout work. As for the Bosox, a surprising stat, in a negative sense, has been failures in games started by Kutter Crawford, losing seven straight when he takes to the mound. Play Yankees on Run Line

So things are not looking great for our Yanks Sat night RL bet but that's fine. Even if they lose they will still have won 14 of their last 19 on the road by 2 runs or more, and BOS will still be almost deadlast in cover % at home. The BoSox are 3-11 Kutter Crawford starts, they have lost 7 straight of his starts by 2 runs or more, and 10 of those 11 losses overall were by 2 runs or more. They have lost 5 straight of his starts by 3 runs or more, with a RD of 9-32 over those 5 games. Yankees lineup will bounce back here. Marcus Stroman doesn't have to be great to win comfortably here