Paxton is better at home than the road, Dunning is a regression candidate and the number say it’s cheaper to play the first 5 AND get the tie than play the full game.

LA's James Paxton has been roughed up in two of his past three starts and I'm guessing that's why this number feels about 25 cents light or so. Paxton is 2-0 with a 2.78 ERA at home, though. My only real concern is a slight letdown for the Dodgers off that Yankees series, but hopefully Monday's day off took care of that. And I think losing that finale in the Bronx only helps here. Texas starter Dane Dunning is almost assured of allowing at least three earned because that's who he is and also and usually much, much worse on the road. Dunning Under 15.5 outs recorded is very tempting.

Dane Dunning has pitched mostly well this season but he is a significant regression candidate the rest of the way and it doesn't get much tougher from a matchup perspective than facing the Dodgers on the road. Dunning has failed to go 5.1 in seven of his last eight starts and has to face a Dodgers lineup that possesses the second highest OPS in the majors. As usual, remember to shop around.

Dodgers came a bad bounce off the mound from sweeping the Yankees in the Bronx and I like them to keep it going here after a much-needed rest day. At this point I don't care who gets announced as the starter for the Rangers; it's going to be suboptimal. Texas is 6-12 vs teams .500 or better and 4-5 in their last 9 despite facing MIA, DET and SF in that span. Still look hungover from the World Series and still battling some injuries. Rangers 14-18 ATS on road. Dodgers are 8-3 when James Paxton starts, with all 8 wins by 2 runs or more, and 3-1 ATS at home when he starts.