Is Halos starter Tyler Anderson due for some massive regression very soon? Probably, but he does have a 2.47 ERA. LA has lost eight of nine but to three of the best teams in the AL. The Padres had to travel from Kansas City on Sunday after blowing a 3-1 lead in the bottom of the ninth in a loss. Those types of things can linger a day or two. Plus no Luis Arraez tonight. The Halos +1.5 at home are cheaper than San Diego ML. That's something I almost always play if the teams aren't completely mismatched and I don't think these are.

The regression monster is waiting to take down Tyler Anderson. His xERA is 4.62 while the ERA is only 2.47, with an alarmingly high left on base rate and a career worst hard hit rate at 36%. San Diego was a top-3 offense vs lefties last season, and Juan Soto may be gone but Luis Arraez hit .326 vs lefties last year and joins six other Padres starters who all had a wOBA above .330 last year vs lefties. Anderson is prone to walks and the Padres likely won't help him with strikeouts, which is what he leans on to get out of trouble. +130 is available and at these prices, I see value in betting against Anderson going a full six innings.

Matt Waldron and his knuckleball have been on a roll, with last week's start against the Marlins his best of the season. He gets to face an Angels team that's dropped eight of nine and isn't particularly good at avoiding strikeouts against righties, who have gotten to five Ks 31 times in 47 starts against L.A. Waldron has topped 4.5 Ks in seven of his 11 starts, including each of the last four. An average pitcher needs to face just 21 batters at the rate the Angels strike out against righties to get to five Ks, and Waldron has been better than average. The juice here should be a decent bit higher.

It's a bit like being mayor of Gilligan's Island, but Tyler Anderson has been the Angels' best starting pitcher this season with his 2.47 ERA. Unfortunately for Halos fans, that also means Anderson is a good bet to be moved at the deadline as the most attractive available addition for another team from Ron Washington's roster. Anderson's recent exploits include just one run allowed in each of his last three starts (1.35 ERA), but because of a stalled offense, and an MLB-worst 7-21 home record, we are very reluctant to back the Angels. "Under" looks a better idea on Monday as Padres starter Matt Waldron has also allowed just three runs across his last three starts (1.53 ERA). Play Padres-Angels "Under"

I have the Padres winning just over 57 percent of simulations which implies this line should be -134. Tyler Anderson remains one of the biggest negative regression candidates in the league as his .282 actual wOBA has drastically outperformed his .340 xwOBA. My biggest concern is his 4-seam fastball (40% of pitches) and the .391 xwOBA. On the other side I expect the Angels to struggle with Waldron's knuckleball. I'm on the Padres -122.