The Reds are winners of 4 in a row and now get the benefit of a good pitching matchup with Andrew Abbott up against 36 year old Kyle Gibson. Gibson has been decent this year, but the ERA, expected ERA, WHIP and other advanced metrics are far worse than Abbott and I expect him to decline even more as we get into the heart of the season. The Cardinals bats are heating up a bit, but they haven't been quite as hot against lefties in this recent solid stretch of hitting. Shop your lines as this number is between -130 to -135 at a number of books.

Andrew Abbott got lit up by the Cardinals late last season, but I expect today to go more like his first start against the team when he threw 5.2 shutout innings. For starters, Abbott hadn't been pitching as well heading into that September start as he is now, when he's allowed more than two earned runs in just one of his 10 outings. And while the Cardinals last year were slightly below average against lefties this year, they've cratered to the tune of a 73 OPS+ this year with a .203/.282/.316 team line against southpaws. I'm going two units with the wrong side of this prop favored.

Taking on some serious juice here but this number should be 4.5 and I still like the under even at 4.5. Abbott's raw strikeout numbers aren't great, however his underlying metrics are not pretty. The lefty possesses a 8.3 swinging strike percentage and pairs that with 82.8% contact percentage. This is also a tough matchup against a Cardinals lineup that is very stingy against opposing left handed pitching and owns the sixth lowest K rate versus southpaws.