Seattle is on an epic road trip and can see the flight home a day away but have another slog ahead of them here. Coming down from huge series with the O's and Yanks and facing a crafty starter who just keeps outperforming expectations. WSH is 7-2 when Trevor Williams starts, and while Nats offense gives me pause, I bet they run all over these catchers and apply pressure. Logan Gilbert's walk rate and HR rate soars on the road, and Ms struggle to score consistently as well.

Logan Gilbert is on the mound for the Mariners, making Seattle the big favorite in this game despite pedestrian numbers in his last three starts. Because the Mariners offense is bad, including leading the league in strikeouts per game and only beating the White Sox in runs per game, he needs to be outstanding for them to win by multiple runs, which they've done in just four of his 10 starts. The Nats are 7-2 when Trevor Williams pitches, with the only multirun loss coming at the white-hot Phillies in his last start. I love the value with the home team here.

It's rare you see this line in this particular matchup with the Mariners the team that strikes out the most per game in MLB. Opposing starters have failed to get to four Ks in just eight of Seattle's 52 games, and the only time it's happened in the last 19 games, the pitcher only threw two innings. Trevor Williams has only topped three Ks once in his last five starts, but he has gotten there in all three home starts this year. Even with all the juice, this is one worth playing.

Per my earlier total pick, I am playing this at 9.5 to avoid the push. Always do the hook. Do think this should be 8.5, though. I was actually going to play a Logan Gilbert over 17.5 outs prop but because the excellent Alex/PropStarz was on it early, that price is outrageous now. I feel like Washington's Trevor Williams is going to turn into a pumpkin soon with that 2.35 ERA as he has never been this good, but hopefully that day isn't today.

Logan Gilbert is having an excellent 4th season and has been routinely going 6+ and has eclipsed this line in 8/10 starts this season. He get a plus matchup against a Nationals lineup that ranks 23rd in OPS against opposing right handed pitching this season. I expected this line to open at 18.5.