Not quite buying the Pirates yet, although I wouldn't even play a sprinkle here if the ML was 20 cents higher as I'm not overly high on the Phils. Rookie right-hander Jared Jones looks like a big-time keeper for the Bucs but this is by far the toughest environment he will pitch in to date and the Phillies have been great at drawing walks. Ranger Suarez is a bit hit or miss for the Phils but historically much better at the Bank. The Phillies have won 11 of his 14 career starts against NL Central clubs and eight of them were quality.

Pirates are off to a red hot start and have been impressive in all areas, offense, defense, and pitching. Meanwhile the Phillies are off to a sluggish start and typically don't start playing well until around July. The Pirates have been very good against opposing lefties this season and have lit up Ranger Suarez in previous matchups. Pittsburgh has a talented young hurler on the mound who the Phillies have never faced. I believe the wrong team is favored here.

We've been on Jared Jones since his first start. You can look it up. He has swing-and-miss stuff and he wants to strike out everyone he faces ... which will have to change as he evolves but has me chasing some K props early. Phillies have never faced him, which works in his favor. The O's don't strikeout and Jones got them 7 times last out and ran through the Marlins inept lineup for 10 punchouts. I expect some over-eagerness from PHI to try to jump him

Philadelphia is 2-4 at home to start the season. The Phillies Ranger Suarez fared better on the road last season than at home. He started this season allowing three earned runs in five innings to Atlanta to the open the year. The Pirates are 6-1 on the road and have been hitting .284 with a .865 OPS against lefties thus far. Pittsburgh’s Jared Jones has been solid to start with 17 strikeouts in 11.2 innings and faces a Phillies team currently hitting .234 collectively.