It’s tough to go against Philadelphia when playing at home. However, the Braves were able to find some momentum with their comeback win in game two. Atlanta has had the best offense in baseball all season and getting them at a plus price is something we can live with. Aaron Nola has pitched very well down the stretch, but the Phillies are 3-6 SU at home this season against teams above .600.

Tough spot here for the Braves, whose pitching depth is now an issue and forcing Brian Snitker to start Bryce Elder in Game 3 at the Bank. Though this is more likely to become a bullpen game after Elder wore down noticeably during the stretch run, and posted a 5.11 ERA after the All-Star break; his last three starts were especially bad (13 ER, 19 hits in 12 1/3 IP). Meanwhile, the Phils have won the last five and nine of the last ten starts made by Aaron Nola, who is off of a splendid seven innings of work in the wild card clinching win over the Marlins, allowing no runs and just three hits in the 7-1 Philly romp.

The Braves are rolling out a questionable starter in a huge spot at 1-1 in this series. The Phillies should be able to mash especially with a rowdy crowd in place. I also think the Braves can get after Aaron Nola regardless of his history against Atlanta this season especially when Game 2 got the Braves offense going late.

The weather is perfect for runs!!! Braves/Phillies over 9 - We couldn't have two better offensive teams with plenty of raw power. Whoever the Braves start Bryce Elder or A.J. Smith Shawver the Phillies are going to get their runs. The Braves lineup will be seeing Aaron Nola for the 4th time this year. Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies have over 100 combined at bats against Nola. Acuna is hitting .327 with four home runs against the Philly starter. Over 9 today.

Braves starter Bryce Elder had a 5.75 ERA in his last 14 starts, a 5.26 ERA in his last 10 and a 9.49 in his last three. He was worse on the road than he was at home, too. I'm expecting the Phillies offense to feast in front of that raucous crowd. Now that the Braves' offense is awake, let's note that Phillies starter Aaron Nola hammers the bottom of the zone with fastballs and sinkers and the Braves feast on those. Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley in particular have crushed Nola in their careers. I'm expecting lots of runs.

DraftKings is the lone book offering the Phillies +1.5 and I will take that even after the devastating late loss in Game 2 -- the bullpen is CLEARLY the weak link of this team. But we hugely prefer Aaron Nola to Bryce Elder/an ATL opener Wednesday. For all but a few innings, the Phils have been the better team in this series. Half unit.