San Diego has won four games since the trade deadline, August 1st. The Padres are hitting .232 with a .725 OPS over their last seven days and get back Michael Wacha this evening. However, Baltimore is 25-13 SU when facing teams under .500. The Orioles Jack Flathery pitched very well in his first road start with the team, one earned run in six innings at Toronto. The Orioles also have Austin Hays back in the lineup tonight.

Michael Wacha's underlying metrics imply negative regression ahead, so it doesn't help that this is his first start since July 1 due to a shoulder injury. When he's bounced early, the O's get a Padres bullpen that has ranked Bottom 5 in the MLB since the start of June. On the other side, Jack Flaherty's fastball and slider account for 65% of his usage, but both are below-average pitches in the MLB in terms of wOBA. Sharp money has been coming in on the this side since noon, with 43% of the tickets but 83% of the handle to the over. The ball will travel further with a humidity level of 70% at first pitch that will climb to 76% an hour into the game.

Two teams headed in completely opposite directions. Baltimore has defied expectations all season long and sport the best record in the AL. The Padres on the other hand are seven games under .500 and have lost two of their last eight games despite possessing one of the highest payrolls in the majors. The wrong team is favored, take Baltimore.

I am concerned about Michael Wacha, who is returning from the IL to start this game. While Wacha's changeup has been fine, he's throwing it too often, and his 4-seam and cut fastballs have been bad in terms of xwOBA. On the flip side, I also have reservations about Jack Flaherty, who has given up 10 walks and 5 home runs in his last 5 starts. Considering that the Padres are among the best teams in MLB at drawing walks and boast one of the lowest strikeout rates since July 1st, I anticipate a significant number of baserunners in this matchup. There's plenty of power in both lineups on a night with humidity in the upper 70's. Take the Over.

I don't understand why Baltimore is not getting more credit from the odds makers. They have the best record in the AL and I personally trust them a lot more than I trust a Padres team that hasn't played up to their potential all season. Jack Flaherty has looked solid since joining Baltimore's rotation at the trade deadline and San Diego starter Michael Wacha is a serious regression candidate. I'll take the Orioles.